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Alpargatas S.A (ALPA3) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · BR · Market cap R$6.1B

AS Alpargatas S.A ALPA3 · SA
PriceR$9.87
Fair ValueR$12.59
Upside+27.6%
Quality73/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Moderate moat 60/100
Evidence: High Range R$7.99 – R$16.29 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from R$12.46 to R$12.59 (+1.0%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +10.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 28% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • A fairly wide model range (R$7.99 to R$16.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$43.98 R$4.81 Fair Value R$12.59 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$4.81 – R$43.98 · fair‑value band R$7.99 – R$16.29 · the R$9.87 price screens below the R$12.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Alpargatas S.A (ALPA3) currently trades at R$9.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$12.59, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alpargatas S.A generated revenue of R$4.7B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at R$843M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$7.99 (bear case) to R$16.29 (bull case); at R$9.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 28%, ALPA3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R$6.81 R$9.87 R$14.00 80
Residual Income R$5.15 R$6.51 R$15.76 76
Rev-Margin DCF R$5.49 R$8.58 R$12.07 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$6.68 R$10.10 R$14.97 38
Owner Earnings R$9.98 R$14.98 R$22.12 31
5Y Revenue Exit R$5.49 R$8.52 R$12.30 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R$7.98 R$13.09 R$18.95 41
5Y P/E Exit R$9.73 R$16.31 R$23.09 38
10Y Revenue Exit R$5.71 R$8.52 R$12.10 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R$7.41 R$11.59 R$16.97 37
10Y P/E Exit R$8.50 R$13.75 R$20.00 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$5.57 R$15.69 R$20.65 54
Lynch FV R$3.18 R$4.54 R$5.90 50
PEG = 1.0 R$3.18 R$4.54 R$5.90 46
EPV R$5.93 R$6.94 R$7.81 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$3.85 R$7.67 R$11.61 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$3.85 R$5.99 R$8.09 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$13.52 R$18.03 R$22.54 63
P/S Multiple R$5.92 R$7.89 R$9.87 58
P/B Multiple R$10.45 R$13.93 R$17.42 55
EV/EBIT R$10.07 R$13.57 R$17.07 53
EV/EBITDA R$9.95 R$13.41 R$16.87 54
EV/Revenue R$5.09 R$7.46 R$9.83 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$2.39 R$3.21 R$4.79 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$6.81 R$9.87 R$14.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF R$5.49 R$8.58 R$12.07 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$5.15 R$6.51 R$15.76 76
ROIC Compounder R$6.15 R$7.72 R$9.57 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$10.77 R$15.38 R$20.00 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R$15.38) versus Asset-Based (R$3.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$4.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.5%
Net margin 13.2%
Return on equity 16.5%
Free cash flow R$468M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.3
More key figures
Operating margin 18.3%
EPS (TTM) R$0.8600
EPS growth (YoY) +43.9%
Net debt R$843M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 60
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alpargatas S.A. manufactures and sells footwear and accessories in Brazil and internationally. The company offers its products under the Havaianas, ioasys, and Rothys brands. The company was formerly known as São Paulo Alpargatas S.A. and changed its name to Alpargatas S.A. in 2010. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alpargatas S.A reported revenue of R$4.6B in FY2025 versus R$3.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$569M in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$4.6B
Latest YoY
+11.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+3.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.7%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+6.9%
Revenue +3.7%/yr
FY21 R$3.9B
FY22 R$4.2B
FY23 R$3.7B
FY24 R$4.1B
FY25 R$4.6B
Net income −4.7%/yr
FY21 R$690M
FY22 R$121M
FY23 −R$1.9B
FY24 R$108M
FY25 R$569M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alpargatas S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPA3

Peer Group

Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +28% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.31× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 70 · sector 4
FUTURE 63 · sector 0
PAST 66 · sector 23
HEALTH 87 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NIKE, Inc NKE $44.37 $35.63 -20%
adidas AG 1ADS €165.00 €65.71 -60%
Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK $106.49 $125.16 +18%
On Holding ONON $38.20 $17.64 -54%
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 ¥12.11 ¥13.03 +8%
Birkenstock Holding BIRK $44.36 $44.14 -0%
Crocs, Inc CROX $138.91 $203.65 +47%
Huali Industrial Group 300979 ¥31.10 ¥54.71 +76%
PUMA SE PUM €29.31 €10.57 -64%
Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO $43.26 $11.69 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alpargatas S.A (ALPA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$12.59 versus a price of R$9.87, about +28% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALPA3?
Our model-based fair value for Alpargatas S.A is R$12.59 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$9.87.
What is the quality score of ALPA3?
Alpargatas S.A has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alpargatas S.A (ALPA3)?
Alpargatas S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$4.7B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALPA3?
The net profit margin of Alpargatas S.A is about 13.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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