Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alto Ingredients Inc stock $2.17, price $3.74, that is 42.0% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Alto Ingredients Inc
ALTO · USOur calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7800 – $7.18 · fair‑value band $1.36 – $2.80 · the $3.74 price screens above the $2.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Company profile
Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production.
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It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils in the food and beverage markets; alcohols and other products for paint applications and fertilizers in the industrial and agriculture markets; and essential ingredients, including dried yeast, corn protein meal, corn protein feed, corn germ, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications, as well as yeast and gas liquid CO2 for human consumption.
The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel additives and distillers corn oil used as a renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties.
In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. Further, the company operates alcohol production facilities.
It sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry, renewable diesel, and biodiesel customers.
The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) currently trades at $3.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.17, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.40 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the $3.74 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.36 (bear) to $2.80 (bull), the price of $3.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Alto Ingredients Inc reported revenue of $918M in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $288M Micro · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.6600 · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 171% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −42%, ALTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 23 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $361,250, on Sep 14, 2026.
- BuyGilbert E NathanDirector3× since May 12, 2026: 85,000 shares, avg. $4.25$361,250Sep 14, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
ALTO screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Linde plc →
Recent news
- Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Will Alto Ingredients' Higher Maintenance Costs Pressure Margins?
- Alto Ingredients vs. Green Plains: Which Ethanol Stock Is Better?
- Can Alto Ingredients Sustain Gains as Alcohol Premiums Narrow?
Compare Alto Ingredients Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 728 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Dividend yield by industry
- EV/EBITDA by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 263.00 TWD | 420.80 TWD | +60% | vs ALTO |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥72.65 | ¥68.03 | −6% | vs ALTO |
| Linde plc LIN | $515.25 | $446.62 | −13% | vs ALTO |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $122.38 | $77.68 | −37% | vs ALTO |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 100.50 | CHF 57.70 | −43% | vs ALTO |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $344.10 | $146.37 | −57% | vs ALTO |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 4,054 | CHF 1,554 | −62% | vs ALTO |
| EMS-CHEMIE HOLDING AG EMSN | CHF 848.50 | CHF 284.63 | −66% | vs ALTO |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $300.68 | $96.56 | −68% | vs ALTO |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $304.84 | $75.33 | −75% | vs ALTO |
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Key figures of Alto Ingredients Inc
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