Alto Ingredients, Inc (ALTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $384M
Alto Ingredients, Inc
ALTO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −24.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7800 – $7.18 · fair‑value band $1.81 – $3.01 · the $4.39 price screens above the $2.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Alto Ingredients, Inc (ALTO) currently trades at $4.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.41, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alto Ingredients, Inc generated revenue of $916M at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue declined 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.6%. Net debt stands at $71.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.81 (bear case) to $3.01 (bull case); at $4.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 377% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -45%, ALTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($7.06) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production.
Full company description
Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils in the food and beverage markets; alcohols and other products for paint applications and fertilizers in the industrial and agriculture markets; and essential ingredients, including dried yeast, corn protein meal, corn protein feed, corn germ, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications, as well as yeast and gas liquid CO2 for human consumption. The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel additives and distillers corn oil used as a renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties. In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. Further, the company operates alcohol production facilities. It sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry, renewable diesel, and biodiesel customers. The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alto Ingredients, Inc reported revenue of $918M in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
ALTO screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alto Ingredients, Inc. to Release Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 5, 2026
- ALTO Trades at a Discount Despite 344% Rally in a Year: What's Next?
- Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?
- Are Consumer Discretionary Stocks Lagging Alto Ingredients (ALTO) This Year?
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 673 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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