Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alto Ingredients Inc $4.35, price $3.73, upside +16.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7800 – $7.18 · fair‑value band $2.38 – $7.61 · the $3.73 price screens below the $4.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production.
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Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets specialty alcohols, renewable fuel, and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Campus Production, and Western Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils in the food and beverage markets; alcohols and other products for paint applications and fertilizers in the industrial and agriculture markets; and essential ingredients, including dried yeast, corn protein meal, corn protein feed, corn germ, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications, as well as yeast and gas liquid CO2 for human consumption. The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel additives and distillers corn oil used as a renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties. In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. Further, the company operates alcohol production facilities. It sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry, renewable diesel, and biodiesel customers. The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) currently trades at $3.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.35, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.06 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the $3.73 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.02, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.38 (bear) to $7.61 (bull), the price of $3.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Alto Ingredients Inc reported revenue of $918M in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3M in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $384M · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 269% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 17%, ALTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.38Fair Value $4.35Bull $7.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2717 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−12.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23% vs −10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 714 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.35 versus a price of $3.73, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALTO?
Our model-based fair value for Alto Ingredients Inc is $4.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.73.
What is the quality score of ALTO?
Alto Ingredients Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.38, optimistic scenario $7.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alto Ingredients Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.35, about +17% upside versus a price of $3.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.38, optimistic scenario $7.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Alto Ingredients Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $916M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Alto Ingredients Inc pay a dividend?
Alto Ingredients Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alto Ingredients Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALTO use?
Our models discount Alto Ingredients Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alto Ingredients Inc that is +22.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alto Ingredients Inc grew +0.5 % a year. The price currently implies +22.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alto Ingredients Inc (+22.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.06 %: that much free cash flow Alto Ingredients Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alto Ingredients Inc it is $4.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.73. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alto Ingredients Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALTO trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.73, fair value $4.35, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALTO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.35). For Alto Ingredients Inc the two are $0.6200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alto Ingredients Inc worth?
The market values Alto Ingredients Inc at about $384M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.73; our models calculate a fair value of $4.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALTO?
Our models span a range for Alto Ingredients Inc: cautious scenario $2.38, base $4.35, optimistic $7.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALTO?
Alto Ingredients Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ALTO?
The PEG ratio of Alto Ingredients Inc is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alto Ingredients Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALTO from its 52-week high?
Alto Ingredients Inc trades at $3.73, about 38% below its 52-week high of $5.99 and 269% above the low of $1.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alto Ingredients Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alto Ingredients Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.73, calculated fair value $4.35 (+17%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALTO calculated?
We run Alto Ingredients Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alto Ingredients Inc currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.73. Our model-based fair value is $4.35, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alto Ingredients Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.38 to $7.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Alto Ingredients Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The market capitalisation of Alto Ingredients Inc is $384M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alto Ingredients Inc is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Earnings per share at Alto Ingredients Inc are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The dividend yield of Alto Ingredients Inc is 0.3% (payout 3.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The net margin of Alto Ingredients Inc is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alto Ingredients Inc is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alto Ingredients Inc is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
The operating margin of Alto Ingredients Inc is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Revenue at Alto Ingredients Inc is growing −0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)?
Earnings per share at Alto Ingredients Inc are growing −66.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO) carry?
The net debt of Alto Ingredients Inc is $71.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026