Aperam SA (APAM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aperam SA stock €27.76, price €35.24, upside -21.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €19.31 – €52.41 · fair‑value band €23.16 – €32.08 · the €35.24 price screens above the €27.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Aperam S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells stainless steel and alloy products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Stainless & Electrical Steel; Services & Solutions; Alloys & Specialties; and Recycling & Renewables.
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The company offers a range of stainless steel, flat stainless and electrical steel, and special carbon products. It also produces specialty grades alloys and specialties. In addition, the company engages in tubes business, as well as provision of value added and customized steel solutions.
Further, it collects, trades, processes, and recycles stainless steel scrap and high-performance alloys. The company serves aerospace, automotive, construction, medical, and oil and gas industries.
It distributes its products through a network of steel service centers, transformation facilities, and sales offices. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Aperam SA (APAM) currently trades at €35.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.76, 21.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €24.87 per share, and 1 of the 20 models we run sit above the €35.24 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €7.56, and 19 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €23.16 (bear) to €32.08 (bull), the price of €35.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aperam SA reported revenue of €6.1B in FY2025 versus €5.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €9.0M in FY2025, compounding −68.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.6B Mid · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) €1.75 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −21%, APAM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€23.16Fair Value €27.76Bull€32.08
Price €35.24 · Upside -21.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0411 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−38.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 0%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +7.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Business quality remains limited by thin margins and low returns in cyclical steel operations, while the alloys segment provides strength through full capacity in aerospace niches.
Main risk: Persistent energy costs combined with weak European demand form the biggest risk to margins in the core steel operations.
Weak European demand and rising energy costs continue to weigh on Aperam as Brazil offers only seasonal support. The alloys business runs at full capacity in niches like aerospace yet the company flags an ongoing energy drag of around twenty million euros per quarter. Will the efficiency program gains outweigh these persistent headwinds in the core operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 403 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aperam SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APAM.MC
Frequently asked questions
Is Aperam SA (APAM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.76 versus a price of €35.24, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APAM?
Our model-based fair value for Aperam SA is €27.76 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €35.24.
What is the quality score of APAM?
Aperam SA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aperam SA (APAM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €27.76 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.16, optimistic scenario €32.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aperam SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €27.76, about −21% upside versus a price of €35.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €23.16, optimistic scenario €32.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aperam SA (APAM)?
Aperam SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Aperam SA pay a dividend?
Aperam SA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aperam SA (APAM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aperam SA would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APAM use?
Our models discount Aperam SA at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.82, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aperam SA that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aperam SA (APAM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aperam SA grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aperam SA (APAM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aperam SA (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.71 %: that much free cash flow Aperam SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aperam SA (APAM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aperam SA it is €27.76 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of €35.24. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aperam SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, APAM trades above its calculated fair value: price €35.24, fair value €27.76, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APAM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€35.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€27.76). For Aperam SA the two are €7.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aperam SA worth?
The market values Aperam SA at about €2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is €35.24; our models calculate a fair value of €27.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APAM?
Our models span a range for Aperam SA: cautious scenario €23.16, base €27.76, optimistic €32.08 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price €35.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APAM?
Aperam SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €27.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of APAM?
The PEG ratio of Aperam SA is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aperam SA (APAM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aperam SA (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APAM from its 52-week high?
Aperam SA trades at €35.24, about 33% below its 52-week high of €52.41 and 24% above the low of €28.31 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €27.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aperam SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aperam SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price €35.24, calculated fair value €27.76 (−21%), Quality Score 49/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APAM calculated?
We run Aperam SA through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €27.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Aperam SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €35.24. Our model-based fair value is €27.76, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aperam SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€32.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aperam SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The market capitalisation of Aperam SA is €2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aperam SA is 0.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aperam SA (APAM)?
Earnings per share at Aperam SA are €1.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The dividend yield of Aperam SA is 4.8% (payout 97.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The net margin of Aperam SA is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aperam SA is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aperam SA (APAM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aperam SA is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aperam SA (APAM)?
The operating margin of Aperam SA is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aperam SA (APAM)?
Revenue at Aperam SA is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aperam SA (APAM)?
Earnings per share at Aperam SA are growing +536% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aperam SA (APAM) carry?
The net debt of Aperam SA is €857M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026