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Arla Plast AB (ARPL) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SE · Market cap 793M SEK

AP Arla Plast AB ARPL · ST
Pricekr 40.55
Fair Valuekr 60.90
Upside+50.2%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: High Range kr 45.68 – kr 76.13 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from kr 72.50 to kr 60.90 (−16.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 50% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 45.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 62.58 kr 27.83 Fair Value kr 60.90 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 27.83 – kr 62.58 · fair‑value band kr 45.68 – kr 76.13 · the kr 40.55 price screens below the kr 60.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Arla Plast AB (ARPL) currently trades at kr 40.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 60.90, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Arla Plast AB generated revenue of 1.4B SEK at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 41.7M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 45.68 (bear case) to kr 76.13 (bull case); at kr 40.55, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at 50%, ARPL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 93.05 kr 133.53 kr 187.63 80
Residual Income kr 29.15 kr 33.38 kr 56.75 76
Rev-Margin DCF kr 70.08 kr 101.91 kr 140.21 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 93.07 kr 136.40 kr 196.70 38
5Y Revenue Exit kr 70.08 kr 101.23 kr 140.54 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 73.70 kr 108.21 kr 148.35 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 70.50 kr 102.04 kr 135.29 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 77.13 kr 106.77 kr 146.34 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 80.57 kr 111.27 kr 151.94 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 78.68 kr 107.30 kr 142.58 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 28.62 kr 102.47 kr 138.06 54
Lynch FV kr 24.16 kr 34.51 kr 44.87 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 24.16 kr 34.51 kr 44.87 46
EPV kr 43.66 kr 48.51 kr 52.55 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 11.66 kr 21.02 kr 28.94 70
DDM Multi-Stage kr 11.66 kr 19.20 kr 22.45 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 53.66 kr 71.55 kr 89.44 63
P/S Multiple kr 53.66 kr 71.55 kr 89.44 58
P/B Multiple kr 53.66 kr 71.55 kr 89.44 55
EV/EBIT kr 65.08 kr 84.06 kr 103.05 53
EV/EBITDA kr 67.68 kr 87.53 kr 107.38 54
EV/Revenue kr 57.48 kr 78.64 kr 99.79 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 16.35 kr 21.91 kr 32.70 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 93.05 kr 133.53 kr 187.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 70.08 kr 101.91 kr 140.21 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 29.15 kr 33.38 kr 56.75 76
ROIC Compounder kr 45.95 kr 54.92 kr 65.41 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 40.71 kr 58.16 kr 75.61 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 107.30) versus Dividend Discount (kr 19.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.4B SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.7%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 13.3%
Free cash flow 183M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 9.7
More key figures
Operating margin 7.0%
EPS (TTM) kr 3.89
EPS growth (YoY) -29.1%
Net cash 41.7M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Arla Plast AB, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and distributes extruded plastic sheets in Sweden, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, rest of Europe, and internationally.

Full company description

Arla Plast AB, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and distributes extruded plastic sheets in Sweden, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, rest of Europe, and internationally. It offers TPC (transparent polycarbonate) used to manufacture machine guards, noise protection, and optical products; OPC (opaque polycarbonate) for protection and details for industry, suitcases, and packaging solutions; and MWPC (multiwall polycarbonate) to manufacture pool roofs, greenhouses, and various roofs for sports arenas and train stations. The company provides PETG (polyethylene terephthalate glycol-modified) used to make shop fittings, wall coverings, and food-related products; ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) to manufacture interior and exterior vehicle parts and packaging; and PMMA (polymethyl methacrylate) for outdoor applications and shop fittings. The company's products are used in personal protection, machine protection, ice hockey rinks, vehicle parts, sound barriers and greenhouses. Arla Plast AB was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Borensberg, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Arla Plast AB reported revenue of kr 1.4B in FY2025 versus kr 927M in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 88.3M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.4B SEK
Latest YoY
+2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Revenue +11.5%/yr
FY21 kr 927M
FY22 kr 958M
FY23 kr 1.0B
FY24 kr 1.4B
FY25 kr 1.4B
Net income +6.7%/yr
FY21 kr 68.1M
FY22 kr 34.4M
FY23 kr 66.9M
FY24 kr 97.9M
FY25 kr 88.3M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arla Plast AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARPL

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 673 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +50% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth -10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 53 · sector 23
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 25

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Arla Plast AB (ARPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 60.90 versus a price of kr 40.55, about +50% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARPL?
Our model-based fair value for Arla Plast AB is kr 60.90 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 40.55.
What is the quality score of ARPL?
Arla Plast AB has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Arla Plast AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ARPL?
The net profit margin of Arla Plast AB is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Arla Plast AB pay a dividend?
Arla Plast AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.10% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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