Arla Plast AB (ARPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arla Plast AB SEK 60.90, price SEK 37.60, upside +62.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 27.83 – kr 62.58 · fair‑value band kr 45.68 – kr 76.13 · the kr 37.60 price screens below the kr 60.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arla Plast AB, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and distributes extruded plastic sheets in Sweden, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, rest of Europe, and internationally.
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Arla Plast AB, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, and distributes extruded plastic sheets in Sweden, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, rest of Europe, and internationally. It offers TPC (transparent polycarbonate) used to manufacture machine guards, noise protection, and optical products; OPC (opaque polycarbonate) for protection and details for industry, suitcases, and packaging solutions; and MWPC (multiwall polycarbonate) to manufacture pool roofs, greenhouses, and various roofs for sports arenas and train stations. The company provides PETG (polyethylene terephthalate glycol-modified) used to make shop fittings, wall coverings, and food-related products; ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) to manufacture interior and exterior vehicle parts and packaging; and PMMA (polymethyl methacrylate) for outdoor applications and shop fittings. The company's products are used in personal protection, machine protection, ice hockey rinks, vehicle parts, sound barriers and greenhouses. Arla Plast AB was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Borensberg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Arla Plast AB (ARPL) currently trades at kr 37.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 60.90, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 100.37 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the kr 37.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 16.61, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 45.68 (bear) to kr 76.13 (bull), the price of kr 37.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arla Plast AB reported revenue of 1.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 927M SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 88.3M SEK in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 789M SEK (≈ $79.4M) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.89 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 62%, ARPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 45.68Fair Value kr 60.90Bull kr 76.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs −19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.7%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 714 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arla Plast AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARPL
Frequently asked questions
Is Arla Plast AB (ARPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 60.90 versus a price of kr 37.60, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARPL?
Our model-based fair value for Arla Plast AB is kr 60.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 37.60.
What is the quality score of ARPL?
Arla Plast AB has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 60.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 45.68, optimistic scenario kr 76.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arla Plast AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 60.90, about +62% upside versus a price of kr 37.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 45.68, optimistic scenario kr 76.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Arla Plast AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arla Plast AB pay a dividend?
Arla Plast AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arla Plast AB would have to grow free cash flow by -19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARPL use?
Our models discount Arla Plast AB at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arla Plast AB that is -19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arla Plast AB (ARPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arla Plast AB grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies -19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arla Plast AB (ARPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arla Plast AB (-19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.21 %: that much free cash flow Arla Plast AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arla Plast AB it is kr 60.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 37.60. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arla Plast AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARPL trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 37.60, fair value kr 60.90, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 37.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 60.90). For Arla Plast AB the two are kr 23.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arla Plast AB worth?
The market values Arla Plast AB at about 789M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 37.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 60.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARPL?
Our models span a range for Arla Plast AB: cautious scenario kr 45.68, base kr 60.90, optimistic kr 76.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 37.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARPL?
Arla Plast AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 60.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arla Plast AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARPL from its 52-week high?
Arla Plast AB trades at kr 37.60, about 36% below its 52-week high of kr 59.12 and 1% above the low of kr 37.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 60.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arla Plast AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arla Plast AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 37.60, calculated fair value kr 60.90 (+62%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARPL calculated?
We run Arla Plast AB through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 60.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arla Plast AB currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 37.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 60.90, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arla Plast AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 45.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Arla Plast AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The market capitalisation of Arla Plast AB is 789M SEK (≈ $79.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arla Plast AB is 0.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Earnings per share at Arla Plast AB are kr 3.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The dividend yield of Arla Plast AB is 4.3% (payout 41.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The net margin of Arla Plast AB is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arla Plast AB is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arla Plast AB is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
The operating margin of Arla Plast AB is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Revenue at Arla Plast AB is growing −9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arla Plast AB (ARPL)?
Earnings per share at Arla Plast AB are growing −29.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Arla Plast AB (ARPL) hold?
Arla Plast AB holds more cash than debt, 41.7M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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