ArcelorMittal S.A (ARRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · DE · Market cap €43.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €53.77 to €54.12 (+0.7%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +14.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€54.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.52 – €64.55 · fair‑value band €43.20 – €54.12 · the €64.18 price screens above the €54.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
ArcelorMittal S.A (ARRD) currently trades at €64.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €54.12, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ArcelorMittal S.A generated revenue of €62.0B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at €7.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €43.20 (bear case) to €54.12 (bull case); at €64.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 153% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -16%, ARRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€73.96) versus Growth DCF (€4.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
Full company description
ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It offers semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, such as blooms and billets; finished long products consisting of bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company also provides mining products, such as iron ore lumps, fines, concentrate, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking coal. It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, and distributors. The company operates iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine, as well as in India and in Canada. ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ArcelorMittal S.A reported revenue of €61.4B in FY2025 versus €76.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.4%/yr. Reported net income was €3.3B in FY2025, compounding −36.7%/yr from FY2021.
ARRD screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 381 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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