Ascencio (D) (ASCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ascencio (D) stock €63.34, price €53.10, upside +19.3%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €32.50 – €53.80 · fair‑value band €40.67 – €90.54 · the €53.10 price screens below the €63.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Ascencio SA is a company incorporated under Belgian law, specializing in real estate investment commercial, and more particularly supermarkets and retail parks.
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The Company is present in Belgium, France and Spain, respectively under the statuses of SIR, SIIC and SOCIMI. With its multidisciplinary team, it manages its assets and its relationships with its retail tenants by adopting a responsible attitude, particularly in terms of sustainability.
The fair value of his portfolio is approximately 770 million euros spread across nearly 100 real estate assets with a total surface area of approximately 450,000 m, generating rental income of around 54 million euros per year. Ascencio SA is listed on Euronext Brussels.
Its market capitalization was 350 million euros as of December 31, 2025. Ascencio SA was incorporated in 2006 in Belgium.
Stock analysis
Ascencio (D) (ASCE) currently trades at €53.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €63.34, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €69.25 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the €53.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €43.62, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €40.67 (bear) to €90.54 (bull), the price of €53.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ascencio (D) reported revenue of €62.4M in FY2025 versus €53.2M in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was €35.6M in FY2025, compounding −6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €350M Small · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 5.60 · EPS (TTM) €5.56 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 58.6% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 19%, ASCE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€40.67Fair Value €63.34Bull€90.54
Price €53.10 · Upside +19.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.8% vs 4.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 67%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price and −2.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+19.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)58.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)65.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ascencio (D) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASCE
Frequently asked questions
Is Ascencio (D) (ASCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €63.34 versus a price of €53.10, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASCE?
Our model-based fair value for Ascencio (D) is €63.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €53.10.
What is the quality score of ASCE?
Ascencio (D) has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €63.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €40.67, optimistic scenario €90.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ascencio (D) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €63.34, about +19% upside versus a price of €53.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €40.67, optimistic scenario €90.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Ascencio (D) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €62.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Ascencio (D) pay a dividend?
Ascencio (D) currently shows a dividend yield of 5.87% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ascencio (D) (ASCE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ascencio (D) pays a dividend of €3.12 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Feb 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2018. The payout ratio is 56.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.13 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ascencio (D) would have to grow free cash flow by +4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASCE use?
Our models discount Ascencio (D) at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ascencio (D) that is +4.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ascencio (D) (ASCE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ascencio (D) grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ascencio (D) (ASCE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ascencio (D) (+4.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.09 %: that much free cash flow Ascencio (D) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ascencio (D) it is €63.34 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €53.10. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ascencio (D) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ASCE trades below its calculated fair value: price €53.10, fair value €63.34, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€53.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€63.34). For Ascencio (D) the two are €10.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ascencio (D) worth?
The market values Ascencio (D) at about €350M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €53.10; our models calculate a fair value of €63.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASCE?
Our models span a range for Ascencio (D): cautious scenario €40.67, base €63.34, optimistic €90.54 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €53.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASCE?
Ascencio (D) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €63.34 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ascencio (D) (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASCE from its 52-week high?
Ascencio (D) trades at €53.10, about 1% below its 52-week high of €53.80 and 12% above the low of €47.32 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €63.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ascencio (D)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ascencio (D) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €53.10, calculated fair value €63.34 (+19%), Quality Score 71/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASCE calculated?
We run Ascencio (D) through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €63.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ascencio (D) currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €53.10. Our model-based fair value is €63.34, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ascencio (D) right now?
A fairly wide model range (€40.67 to €90.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Ascencio (D) (ASCE) come from?
Earnings per share at Ascencio (D) grew +1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ascencio (D)
How large is the market capitalisation of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The market capitalisation of Ascencio (D) is €350M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ascencio (D) is 5.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Earnings per share at Ascencio (D) are €5.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The dividend yield of Ascencio (D) is 5.9% (payout 56.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The net margin of Ascencio (D) is 58.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ascencio (D) is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ascencio (D) is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
The operating margin of Ascencio (D) is 65.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Revenue at Ascencio (D) is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ascencio (D) (ASCE)?
Earnings per share at Ascencio (D) are growing +4.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ascencio (D) (ASCE) carry?
The net debt of Ascencio (D) is €294M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026