Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc $74.82, price $48.31, upside +54.9%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.64 – $73.38 · fair‑value band $50.69 – $98.12 · the $48.31 price screens below the $74.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational retailer in the United States.
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Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational retailer in the United States. The company's outdoors division comprises camping products, such as coolers and drinkware, camping accessories and equipment, and watersports and equipment; fishing products, including marine equipment and fishing rods, reels, and baits and equipment; and hunting products, which includes firearms, ammunition, archery and archery equipment, camouflage apparel, waders, shooting accessories, gun safes, optics, airguns, and hunting equipment. Its sports and recreation division offers fitness equipment, fitness accessories, and nutrition supplies; team and specialty sports equipment, including baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf, racket sports, volleyball, backpacks, and sports bags; recreation products, which includes patio furniture, outdoor cooking, trampolines, and play sets, as well as wheeled goods that include bicycles, skateboards, and other ride-on toys; and electronics, watches, and sunglasses, as well as front-end products, such as consumables, batteries, etc. The company's apparel division provides outdoor and seasonal apparel, denim, work apparel, graphic t-shirts, accessories, and outerwear; boys and girls outdoor, and athletic apparel and swimwear; sporting and fitness apparel; and professional and collegiate team licensed apparel and accessories. Its footwear division offers casual shoes, slippers, seasonal footwear, and socks; work and western boots, shoes, and hunting footwear; boys and girls footwear; athletic footwear, such as running shoes, athletic lifestyle, and training shoes; and team and specialty sports footwear, and slides. The company sells its products under the Academy Sports + Outdoors, Magellan Outdoors, BCG, O'rageous, Game Winner, Outdoor Gourmet, Freely, R.O.W., Redfield, and H2OX brand names. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Katy, Texas.
Stock analysis
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) currently trades at $48.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.82, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $104.94 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $48.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.46, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $50.69 (bear) to $98.12 (bull), the price of $48.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc reported revenue of $6.1B in FY2026 versus $6.8B in FY2022, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $377M in FY2026, compounding −13.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $5.66 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 55%, ASO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $50.69Fair Value $74.82Bull $98.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $74.82 versus a price of $48.31, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASO?
Our model-based fair value for Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is $74.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.31.
What is the quality score of ASO?
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $74.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $50.69, optimistic scenario $98.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Academy Sports Outdoors Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $74.82, about +55% upside versus a price of $48.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $50.69, optimistic scenario $98.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Academy Sports Outdoors Inc pay a dividend?
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Academy Sports Outdoors Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASO use?
Our models discount Academy Sports Outdoors Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Academy Sports Outdoors Inc that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.76 %: that much free cash flow Academy Sports Outdoors Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Academy Sports Outdoors Inc it is $74.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $48.31. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Academy Sports Outdoors Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ASO trades below its calculated fair value: price $48.31, fair value $74.82, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($74.82). For Academy Sports Outdoors Inc the two are $26.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Academy Sports Outdoors Inc worth?
The market values Academy Sports Outdoors Inc at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $48.31; our models calculate a fair value of $74.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASO?
Our models span a range for Academy Sports Outdoors Inc: cautious scenario $50.69, base $74.82, optimistic $98.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $48.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASO?
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $74.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ASO?
The PEG ratio of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 0.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASO from its 52-week high?
Academy Sports Outdoors Inc trades at $48.31, about 21% below its 52-week high of $60.83 and 17% above the low of $41.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $74.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Academy Sports Outdoors Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Academy Sports Outdoors Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $48.31, calculated fair value $74.82 (+55%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASO calculated?
We run Academy Sports Outdoors Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $74.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Academy Sports Outdoors Inc currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $48.31. Our model-based fair value is $74.82, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Academy Sports Outdoors Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($50.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($50.69 to $98.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The market capitalisation of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Earnings per share at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc are $5.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The dividend yield of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 1.2% (payout 9.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The net margin of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 6.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
The operating margin of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Revenue at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)?
Earnings per share at Academy Sports Outdoors Inc are growing +17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO) carry?
The net debt of Academy Sports Outdoors Inc is $1.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026