Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc (ASO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.9B
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc
ASO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $70.25 to $73.32 (+4.4%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 52% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($48.85 to $129.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.64 – $73.38 · fair‑value band $48.85 – $129.10 · the $48.13 price screens below the $73.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc (ASO) currently trades at $48.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.32, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc generated revenue of $6.1B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $48.85 (bear case) to $129.10 (bull case); at $48.13, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 52%, ASO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($104.94) versus Dividend Discount ($5.35). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational retailer in the United States.
Full company description
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational retailer in the United States. The company's outdoors division comprises camping products, such as coolers and drinkware, camping accessories and equipment, and watersports and equipment; fishing products, including marine equipment and fishing rods, reels, and baits and equipment; and hunting products, which includes firearms, ammunition, archery and archery equipment, camouflage apparel, waders, shooting accessories, gun safes, optics, airguns, and hunting equipment. Its sports and recreation division offers fitness equipment, fitness accessories, and nutrition supplies; team and specialty sports equipment, including baseball, football, basketball, soccer, golf, racket sports, volleyball, backpacks, and sports bags; recreation products, which includes patio furniture, outdoor cooking, trampolines, and play sets, as well as wheeled goods that include bicycles, skateboards, and other ride-on toys; and electronics, watches, and sunglasses, as well as front-end products, such as consumables, batteries, etc. The company's apparel division provides outdoor and seasonal apparel, denim, work apparel, graphic t-shirts, accessories, and outerwear; boys and girls outdoor, and athletic apparel and swimwear; sporting and fitness apparel; and professional and collegiate team licensed apparel and accessories. Its footwear division offers casual shoes, slippers, seasonal footwear, and socks; work and western boots, shoes, and hunting footwear; boys and girls footwear; athletic footwear, such as running shoes, athletic lifestyle, and training shoes; and team and specialty sports footwear, and slides. The company sells its products under the Academy Sports + Outdoors, Magellan Outdoors, BCG, O'rageous, Game Winner, Outdoor Gourmet, Freely, R.O.W., Redfield, and H2OX brand names. Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Katy, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc reported revenue of $6.1B in FY2026 versus $6.8B in FY2022, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $377M in FY2026, compounding −13.4%/yr from FY2022.
Watch ASO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Academy Sports + Outdoors Advances Omnichannel Growth Strategy with Launch of Academy Retail Media
- Academy Sports + Outdoors Partners with French Toast and BEAR to Support 1,000 Houston-area Students During Back-to-School Season
- Academy Sports + Outdoors Helps Texas Families Kick Off Back-to-School and Back-to-Sport Shopping with Exclusive Statewide Giveaway Event
- Academy Sports + Outdoors Helps Families Win Back-to-School and Back-to-Sport with Thousands of Lower Prices on Brands Families Know and Tru
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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