Aspen Aerogels, Inc (ASPN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $501M
Aspen Aerogels, Inc
ASPN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $5.12 to $12.35 (+141.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +20.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 98% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.66 to $15.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.57 – $63.66 · fair‑value band $7.66 – $15.58 · the $6.25 price screens below the $12.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Aspen Aerogels, Inc (ASPN) currently trades at $6.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.35, implying the stock looks roughly 97.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aspen Aerogels, Inc generated revenue of $230M at a net margin of -48.6%. Revenue declined 51.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -42.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.66 (bear case) to $15.58 (bull case); at $6.25, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 98%, ASPN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($15.04) versus Asset-Based ($1.90). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials primarily for use in the energy industrial, sustainable insulation materials, and electric vehicle (EV) markets in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Full company description
Aspen Aerogels, Inc., an aerogel technology company, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel materials primarily for use in the energy industrial, sustainable insulation materials, and electric vehicle (EV) markets in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. It operates through two segments: Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial. The company offers PyroThin aerogel thermal barriers for use in battery packs in EVs; Pyrogel XTE for refineries and petrochemical facilities; Pyrogel HPS for high temperatures and in demanding thermal applications in refining and chemical processing systems; Pyrogel XTF for protection against fire; Cryogel Z for sub-ambient and cryogenic applications; Spaceloft Subsea for pipe-in-pipe applications in offshore oil production; and Cryogel X201 for cold system designs. It serves EV manufacturers, automotive suppliers, lithium-ion battery manufacturers, and e-mobility and energy storage companies. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aspen Aerogels, Inc reported revenue of $271M in FY2025 versus $122M in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$390M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aspen Aerogels Named a 2025 Supplier of the Year by General Motors
- How The Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Investment Story Is Shifting With Mixed Analyst Views
- Aspen Aerogels Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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