Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk IDR 2,768, price IDR 570, upside +385.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk provides transportation solutions in Indonesia.
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PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk provides transportation solutions in Indonesia. The company provides rental business services; and leasing services without option rights for car, bus, and truck, as well as land transportation equipment not motorized vehicles with four or more wheels; wholesale of used cars, including special cars, lorries, trailers, semitrailers and various other motorized transport vehicles; operational transportation of goods such as truck, pick up, and open beds and closed beds; and transportation consulting services. It also engages in car repair and maintenance business. In addition, the company provides driver services, used vehicle trade through online and offline, freight forwarding services, and logistics management and warehousing services; and provision of management and consulting services. Further, it provides human resources and human resource function management; publishes ready-made software and web portal and/or digital platforms for commercial purposes; and communication equipment repair services. PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Jakarta Utara, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) currently trades at 570.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,768 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 79.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,140 IDR per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the 570.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 398.02 IDR, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,921 IDR (bear) to 3,599 IDR (bull), the price of 570.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk reported revenue of 6.0T IDR in FY2025 versus 5.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 418B IDR in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3T IDR (≈ $131M) · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) 112.27 IDR · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 386%, ASSA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,921 IDRFair Value 2,768 IDRBull 3,599 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (84.89 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+45.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.4% vs 25.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
2025 sits 295% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 88 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adi Sarana Armada Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASSA
Frequently asked questions
Is Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,768 IDR versus a price of 570.00 IDR, about +386% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASSA?
Our model-based fair value for Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 2,768 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 570.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ASSA?
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,768 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,921 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,599 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adi Sarana Armada Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,768 IDR, about +386% upside versus a price of 570.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1,921 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,599 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adi Sarana Armada Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASSA use?
Our models discount Adi Sarana Armada Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adi Sarana Armada Tbk that is +3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (+3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.06 %: that much free cash flow Adi Sarana Armada Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adi Sarana Armada Tbk it is 2,768 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 570.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adi Sarana Armada Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ASSA trades below its calculated fair value: price 570.00 IDR, fair value 2,768 IDR, a gap of about +386% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (570.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,768 IDR). For Adi Sarana Armada Tbk the two are 2,198 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adi Sarana Armada Tbk worth?
The market values Adi Sarana Armada Tbk at about 2.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 570.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,768 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASSA?
Our models span a range for Adi Sarana Armada Tbk: cautious scenario 1,921 IDR, base 2,768 IDR, optimistic 3,599 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 570.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASSA?
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,768 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASSA from its 52-week high?
Adi Sarana Armada Tbk trades at 570.00 IDR, about 52% below its 52-week high of 1,196 IDR and 15% above the low of 495.63 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,768 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adi Sarana Armada Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adi Sarana Armada Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 570.00 IDR, calculated fair value 2,768 IDR (+386%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASSA calculated?
We run Adi Sarana Armada Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,768 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Adi Sarana Armada Tbk currently trades 79 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 570.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,768 IDR, about +386% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adi Sarana Armada Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (1,921 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (1,921 IDR to 3,599 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) come from?
Earnings per share at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk grew +20.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.9 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The market capitalisation of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 2.3T IDR (≈ $131M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Earnings per share at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk are 112.27 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The net margin of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
The operating margin of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Revenue at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA)?
Earnings per share at Adi Sarana Armada Tbk are growing −3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adi Sarana Armada Tbk (ASSA) carry?
The net debt of Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is 3.2T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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