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Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd ¥8.34, price ¥4.11, upside +102.9%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE0000009B1

BL Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Bohai Leasing Co Ltd

000415 · SHE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥8.34 · Strongly undervalued (+103%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥5.39 ¥1.83 Fair Value ¥8.34 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥1.83 – ¥5.39 · fair‑value band ¥2.74 – ¥8.34 · the ¥4.11 price screens below the ¥8.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a leasing company in the People's Republic of China. It provides aircraft, containers, infrastructure, and large equipment leasing services. The company was formerly known as Bohai Capital Holding Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd. in November 2018.

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Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a leasing company in the People's Republic of China. It provides aircraft, containers, infrastructure, and large equipment leasing services. The company was formerly known as Bohai Capital Holding Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd. in November 2018. Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd. Was founded in 1993 and is based in Urumqi, China.

Stock analysis

Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) currently trades at ¥4.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.34, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.62 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥4.11 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.19, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥2.74 (bear) to ¥8.34 (bull), the price of ¥4.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Bohai Leasing Co Ltd reported revenue of 52.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −406M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 27.7B CNY (≈ $4.1B) · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0300 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity 2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 38.8% · Revenue (TTM) 44.8B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 103%, 000415 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥2.74 Fair Value ¥8.34 Bull ¥8.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a n/a ¥0.3600 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a ¥0.3600 68
EV/EBITDA ¥4.64 ¥14.11 ¥23.58 62
All 5 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a n/a ¥0.3600 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a ¥3.62 ¥10.47 61
EV/EBITDA ¥4.64 ¥14.11 ¥23.58 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.38 ¥3.19 ¥4.76 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a ¥0.3600 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.9% (2020) → 26.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 95 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −48% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 5.32× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.09× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)12 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 64
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Rentals, Inc URI $1,043 $437.82 −58%
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB $75.67 $65.76 −13%
AerCap Holdings AER $144.22 $227.63 +58%
U-Haul Holding UHAL $62.07 $7.57 −88%
Ryder System, Inc R $236.50 $161.47 −32%
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$24.42 C$21.24 −13%
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$71.60 HK$145.98 +104%
GATX Corporation GATX $183.01 $128.33 −30%
Avis Budget Group CAR $107.73 $158.81 +47%
WillScot Holdings WSC $18.35 $43.19 +135%

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Bohai Leasing Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥8.34 +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bohai Leasing Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000415

Frequently asked questions

Is Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.34 versus a price of ¥4.11, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000415?
Our model-based fair value for Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is ¥8.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.11.
What is the quality score of 000415?
Bohai Leasing Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.74, optimistic scenario ¥8.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bohai Leasing Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.34, about +103% upside versus a price of ¥4.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.74, optimistic scenario ¥8.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Bohai Leasing Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 44.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bohai Leasing Co Ltd it is ¥8.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.11. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bohai Leasing Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000415 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥4.11, fair value ¥8.34, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000415?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.34). For Bohai Leasing Co Ltd the two are ¥4.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bohai Leasing Co Ltd worth?
The market values Bohai Leasing Co Ltd at about 27.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.11; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000415?
Our models span a range for Bohai Leasing Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.74, base ¥8.34, optimistic ¥8.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.9%, debt of 5.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000415 from its 52-week high?
Bohai Leasing Co Ltd trades at ¥4.11, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥5.39 and 22% above the low of ¥3.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bohai Leasing Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bohai Leasing Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.11, calculated fair value ¥8.34 (+103%), Quality Score 40/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000415 calculated?
We run Bohai Leasing Co Ltd through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Bohai Leasing Co Ltd currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥4.11. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.34, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bohai Leasing Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (¥2.74 to ¥8.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) come from?
Earnings per share at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd grew −6.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −10.0 %, tax rate −5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The market capitalisation of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 27.7B CNY (≈ $4.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Earnings per share at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd are ¥−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The net margin of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
The operating margin of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 38.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Revenue at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is growing −47.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415)?
Earnings per share at Bohai Leasing Co Ltd are growing +35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) generate?
The free cash flow of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is −21.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bohai Leasing Co Ltd (000415) carry?
The net debt of Bohai Leasing Co Ltd is 147B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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