CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of CapitaLand Retail China Trust S$0.46, price S$0.63, upside -26.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT) is Singapore's largest China-focused real estate investment trust (REIT). CLCT's portfolio comprises eight shopping malls, five business park properties and four logistics park properties. Its total property value is 4.2 billion US dollars based on valuations as at 31 December 2025.
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CapitaLand China Trust (CLCT) is Singapore's largest China-focused real estate investment trust (REIT). CLCT's portfolio comprises eight shopping malls, five business park properties and four logistics park properties. Its total property value is 4.2 billion US dollars based on valuations as at 31 December 2025. The geographically diversified portfolio has a total gross floor area of approximately 1.7 million square meters, located across 11 leading Chinese cities. CLCT was listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST) on 8 December 2006, and established with the objective of investing on a long-term basis in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate and real estate-related assets in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau that are used primarily for retail, office and industrial purposes (including business parks, logistics facilities, data centres and integrated developments). CLCT is managed by CapitaLand China Trust Management Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore-listed CapitaLand Investment Limited, a leading global real asset manager with a strong Asia foothold. CapitaLand China Trust was established on October 23, 2006 and incorporated in Singapore.
Stock analysis
CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) currently trades at 0.6250 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.4600 SGD, 26.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 0.9900 SGD per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the 0.6250 SGD price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.3300 SGD, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.1400 SGD (bear) to 0.9300 SGD (bull), the price of 0.6250 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CapitaLand Retail China Trust reported revenue of 304M SGD in FY2025 versus 378M SGD in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was −5.5M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SGD (≈ $849M) · P/E ex one-offs 20.4 · P/S ratio 3.73 · EPS (TTM) −0.0100 SGD · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −26%, AU8U screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.1400 SGDFair Value 0.4600 SGDBull 0.9300 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
61.7% (2019) → 59.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Compare CapitaLand Retail China Trust with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.86× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF6.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.36× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CapitaLand Retail China Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AU8U
Frequently asked questions
Is CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.4600 SGD versus a price of 0.6250 SGD, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AU8U?
Our model-based fair value for CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 0.4600 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.6250 SGD.
What is the quality score of AU8U?
CapitaLand Retail China Trust has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.4600 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.9300 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CapitaLand Retail China Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.4600 SGD, about −26% upside versus a price of 0.6250 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.9300 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
CapitaLand Retail China Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 297M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does CapitaLand Retail China Trust pay a dividend?
CapitaLand Retail China Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CapitaLand Retail China Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AU8U use?
Our models discount CapitaLand Retail China Trust at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CapitaLand Retail China Trust that is +9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CapitaLand Retail China Trust grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CapitaLand Retail China Trust (+9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.48 %: that much free cash flow CapitaLand Retail China Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CapitaLand Retail China Trust it is 0.4600 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.6250 SGD. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CapitaLand Retail China Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AU8U trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.6250 SGD, fair value 0.4600 SGD, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AU8U?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.6250 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.4600 SGD). For CapitaLand Retail China Trust the two are 0.1650 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CapitaLand Retail China Trust worth?
The market values CapitaLand Retail China Trust at about 1.1B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.6250 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.4600 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AU8U?
Our models span a range for CapitaLand Retail China Trust: cautious scenario 0.1400 SGD, base 0.4600 SGD, optimistic 0.9300 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 0.6250 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AU8U?
The PEG ratio of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Balance-sheet figures for CapitaLand Retail China Trust (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AU8U from its 52-week high?
CapitaLand Retail China Trust trades at 0.6250 SGD, about 19% below its 52-week high of 0.7707 SGD and 3% above the low of 0.6071 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.4600 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CapitaLand Retail China Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CapitaLand Retail China Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.6250 SGD, calculated fair value 0.4600 SGD (−26%), Quality Score 57/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AU8U calculated?
We run CapitaLand Retail China Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.4600 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CapitaLand Retail China Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 0.6250 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.4600 SGD, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CapitaLand Retail China Trust right now?
The model range is unusually wide (0.1400 SGD to 0.9300 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) come from?
Earnings per share at CapitaLand Retail China Trust grew −9.7 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CapitaLand Retail China Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The market capitalisation of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 1.1B SGD (≈ $849M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 20.4 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 3.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Earnings per share at CapitaLand Retail China Trust are −0.0100 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The dividend yield of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 7.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The net margin of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is −1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
The operating margin of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 61.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Revenue at CapitaLand Retail China Trust is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U)?
Earnings per share at CapitaLand Retail China Trust are growing −12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CapitaLand Retail China Trust (AU8U) carry?
The net debt of CapitaLand Retail China Trust is 1.5B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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