Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $8.9B
Agree Realty Corporation
ADC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band ($38.70 to $39.16), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.85 – $81.12 · fair‑value band $38.70 – $39.16 · the $75.63 price screens above the $39.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) currently trades at $75.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.16, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Agree Realty Corporation generated revenue of $750M at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 18.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.70 (bear case) to $39.16 (bull case); at $75.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -48%, ADC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($85.42) versus Multiples ($28.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants.
Full company description
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 2,674 properties, located in all 50 states and containing approximately 55.5 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Agree Realty Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Royal Oak, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Agree Realty Corporation reported revenue of $718M in FY2025 versus $339M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
ADC screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Agree Realty Corp (ADC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Investment Volume and Raised ...
- Agree Realty Corp's Dividend Analysis
- Agree Realty (ADC) Surpasses Q2 FFO and Revenue Estimates
- Agree Realty Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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