Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Agree Realty Corporation stock $99.94, price $69.87, upside +43.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.97 – $79.91 · fair‑value band $41.21 – $201.48 · the $69.87 price screens below the $99.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants.
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As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 2,674 properties, located in all 50 states and containing approximately 55.5 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Agree Realty Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Royal Oak, United States.
Stock analysis
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) currently trades at $69.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $99.94, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $136.88 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $69.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $28.39, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.21 (bear) to $201.48 (bull), the price of $69.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Agree Realty Corporation reported revenue of $718M in FY2025 versus $339M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.4B Mid · P/E ratio 35.9 · P/S ratio 10.4 · EPS (TTM) $1.94 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 43%, ADC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$41.21Fair Value $99.94Bull$201.48
Price $69.87 · Upside +43.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors bought shares worth $7.1M, most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyCraig ErlichCHIEF GROWTH OFFICER1,000 shares at $67.55$67,550Sep 21, 2026
BuyJoey AgreePRESIDENT & CEO, Director2× since May 14, 2026: 20,655 shares, avg. $72.79$1.5MSep 16, 2026
BuyJohn Rakolta JrDirector6× since Dec 24, 2025: 85,282 shares, avg. $72.23$6.2MSep 16, 2026
BuyRichard AgreeEXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF BOARD, Director2× since Jan 9, 2026: 29,000 shares, avg. $70.80$2.1MJun 4, 2026
BuyGreg LehmkuhlDirector750 shares at $75.09$56,318May 14, 2026
BuyPeter CoughenourCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER500 shares at $69.80$34,900Jan 9, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.2% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs −0.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws moderate moat strength from retail net-lease focus and cash conversion yet faces low differentiation that leaves it easily replicated by peers.
Main risk: Other net-lease REITs such as Realty Income and NNN REIT plus private equity and 1031 buyers compete aggressively for the same high-quality retail properties, which could drive up acquisition prices and compress cap rates on ADC's external growth platforms.
Bull case: ADC could leverage its development and developer-funding platforms plus strong tenant relationships to source off-market deals at attractive yields and maintain spreads even amid heightened competition.
Bear case: Intensified competition from larger peers and private capital together with persistently high funding costs could limit accretive investment volume, slow portfolio growth and reduce long-term cash-flow expansion.
Agree Realty pairs its acquisition strategy with a growing development and developer funding platform that set new records for construction starts in the latest quarter. This adds a layer of internal growth to its net-lease retail portfolio beyond buying existing assets. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will the development efforts produce steadier long-term returns than pure acquisitions or create new operational complexities?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+43.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)29.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)48.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)35.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.34× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)10.39× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.7× · Pricier than median
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Is Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $99.94 versus a price of $69.87, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADC?
Our model-based fair value for Agree Realty Corporation is $99.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.87.
What is the quality score of ADC?
Agree Realty Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $99.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.21, optimistic scenario $201.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agree Realty Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $99.94, about +43% upside versus a price of $69.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $41.21, optimistic scenario $201.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Agree Realty Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $810M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Agree Realty Corporation pay a dividend?
Agree Realty Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Agree Realty Corporation pays a dividend of $3.17 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1994. The payout ratio is 164% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.28 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Agree Realty Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADC use?
Our models discount Agree Realty Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Agree Realty Corporation that is +9.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Agree Realty Corporation grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Agree Realty Corporation (+9.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.99 %: that much free cash flow Agree Realty Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agree Realty Corporation it is $99.94 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $69.87. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Agree Realty Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ADC trades below its calculated fair value: price $69.87, fair value $99.94, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($99.94). For Agree Realty Corporation the two are $30.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agree Realty Corporation worth?
The market values Agree Realty Corporation at about $8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $69.87; our models calculate a fair value of $99.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADC?
Our models span a range for Agree Realty Corporation: cautious scenario $41.21, base $99.94, optimistic $201.48 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $69.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADC?
Agree Realty Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $99.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2021 ex one-offs: 35.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 1.3, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 16.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ADC?
The PEG ratio of Agree Realty Corporation is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agree Realty Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADC from its 52-week high?
Agree Realty Corporation trades at $69.87, about 13% below its 52-week high of $79.91 and 9% above the low of $64.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $99.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agree Realty Corporation?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agree Realty Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $69.87, calculated fair value $99.94 (+43%), Quality Score 40/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADC calculated?
We run Agree Realty Corporation through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $99.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Agree Realty Corporation currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $69.87. Our model-based fair value is $99.94, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agree Realty Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($41.21 to $201.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) come from?
Earnings per share at Agree Realty Corporation grew +0.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Agree Realty Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The market capitalisation of Agree Realty Corporation is $8.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agree Realty Corporation is 10.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Earnings per share at Agree Realty Corporation are $1.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The dividend yield of Agree Realty Corporation is 4.5% (payout 164%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The net margin of Agree Realty Corporation is 29.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agree Realty Corporation is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agree Realty Corporation is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
The operating margin of Agree Realty Corporation is 48.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Revenue at Agree Realty Corporation is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Earnings per share at Agree Realty Corporation are growing +17.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) carry?
The net debt of Agree Realty Corporation is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026