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Aurea SA (AURE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FR · Market cap €51.9M

AS Aurea SA AURE · PA
Price€5.90
Fair Value€4.80
Upside-18.6%
Quality42/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -2.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 16/100
Evidence: Medium Range €3.58 – €7.16 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +5.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 19% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (€3.58 to €7.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€12.46 €4.52 Fair Value €4.80 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.52 – €12.46 · fair‑value band €3.58 – €7.16 · the €5.90 price screens above the €4.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Aurea SA (AURE) currently trades at €5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.80, implying the stock looks roughly 18.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Aurea SA generated revenue of €223M at a net margin of -2.4%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.7%. Net debt stands at €9.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.58 (bear case) to €7.16 (bull case); at €5.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -19%, AURE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €3.17 €3.87 €4.66 80
Rev-Margin DCF €3.25 €4.52 €5.93 74
Gordon GGM €1.05 €1.67 €2.27 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €3.15 €3.94 €4.87 38
5Y Revenue Exit €3.25 €4.49 €6.03 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €6.66 €10.64 €15.16 41
10Y Revenue Exit €3.12 €4.12 €5.36 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €5.01 €7.69 €11.10 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.05 €1.67 €2.27 70
DDM Multi-Stage €1.05 €1.45 €1.81 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €10.78 €14.13 €17.48 54
EV/Revenue €3.50 €4.69 €5.88 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.58 €4.80 €7.16 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €3.17 €3.87 €4.66 80
Rev-Margin DCF €3.25 €4.52 €5.93 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (€4.80) versus Dividend Discount (€1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €223M
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.4%
Net margin -2.4%
Return on equity -7.7%
Free cash flow €2.9M FY2025
Operating margin -1.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.5800
EPS growth (YoY) -77.1%
Net debt €9.9M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 3
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aurea SA engages in the recycling of black motor oil in France. It also manufactures remould tyres from used tyres, as well as recycling rigid PVC. In addition, the company recycles complex plastics and packaging; refines and recycles aluminium; and recycles copper and produces copper alloy.

Full company description

Aurea SA engages in the recycling of black motor oil in France. It also manufactures remould tyres from used tyres, as well as recycling rigid PVC. In addition, the company recycles complex plastics and packaging; refines and recycles aluminium; and recycles copper and produces copper alloy. Further, it is involved in the treatment and recycling of zinc, lead, and cadmium; and treatment and decontamination of mercury waste. The company was formerly known as AUER and changed its name to Aurea SA in 1988. Aurea SA was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aurea SA reported revenue of €201M in FY2025 versus €219M in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€201M
Latest YoY
−18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.2%
Revenue −2.2%/yr
FY21 €219M
FY22 €253M
FY23 €246M
FY24 €245M
FY25 €201M
Net income
FY21 €11.2M
FY22 €3.0M
FY23 €4.6M
FY24 €1.1M
FY25 −€5.9M

AURE screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aurea SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AURE

Peer Group

Waste Management · 166 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −19% · Above median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 21.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.23× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 9 · sector 8
FUTURE 7 · sector 22
PAST 0 · sector 25
HEALTH 78 · sector 81
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $233.33 $128.02 -45%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $219.20 $122.01 -44%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN C$242.43 C$78.67 -68%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €37.51 €24.50 -35%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $303.64 $155.37 -49%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL C$55.40 C$94.12 +70%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €12.20 €7.30 -40%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.32 ¥5.27 -17%
Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 ¥16.18 ¥20.91 +29%
Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY A$2.34 A$1.18 -50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aurea SA (AURE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.80 versus a price of €5.90, about −19% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AURE?
Our model-based fair value for Aurea SA is €4.80 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €5.90.
What is the quality score of AURE?
Aurea SA has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Aurea SA (AURE)?
Aurea SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €223M (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AURE?
The net profit margin of Aurea SA is about -2.4%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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