Avation PLC (AVAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Avation PLC £1.81, price £1.39, upside +30.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.6104 – £1.77 · fair‑value band £1.69 – £2.35 · the £1.39 price screens below the £1.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Avation PLC, together with its subsidiaries, leases commercial passenger aircraft to airlines in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The company's fleet includes 14 narrow-body jets, two twin-aisle jets, and 17 ATR 72 twin-engine turboprop aircraft. As of June 30, 2025, the company owned and managed a fleet of 33 aircraft.
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Avation PLC, together with its subsidiaries, leases commercial passenger aircraft to airlines in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The company's fleet includes 14 narrow-body jets, two twin-aisle jets, and 17 ATR 72 twin-engine turboprop aircraft. As of June 30, 2025, the company owned and managed a fleet of 33 aircraft. It is also involved in the financing business. Avation PLC was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Avation PLC (AVAP) currently trades at £1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.81, implying the stock looks roughly 23.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of £2.26 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the £1.39 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £1.02, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.69 (bear) to £2.35 (bull), the price of £1.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Avation PLC reported revenue of $110M in FY2026 versus $110M in FY2022, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $8.4M in FY2026, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 90.4M GBX · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) £0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 30%, AVAP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.69Fair Value £1.81Bull £2.35
Price £1.39 · Upside +30.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0246 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.13/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.3% vs −9.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−57% → 50%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 89 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avation PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVAP
Frequently asked questions
Is Avation PLC (AVAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.81 versus a price of £1.39, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVAP?
Our model-based fair value for Avation PLC is £1.81 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.39.
What is the quality score of AVAP?
Avation PLC has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.81 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.69, optimistic scenario £2.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avation PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.81, about +30% upside versus a price of £1.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.69, optimistic scenario £2.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Avation PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $110M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Avation PLC pay a dividend?
Avation PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avation PLC it is £1.81 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of £1.39. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avation PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, AVAP trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.39, fair value £1.81, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.81). For Avation PLC the two are £0.4200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avation PLC worth?
The market values Avation PLC at about 90.4M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is £1.39; our models calculate a fair value of £1.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVAP?
Our models span a range for Avation PLC: cautious scenario £1.69, base £1.81, optimistic £2.35 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price £1.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVAP?
Avation PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avation PLC (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 2.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVAP from its 52-week high?
Avation PLC trades at £1.39, about 16% below its 52-week high of £1.65 and 13% above the low of £1.24 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avation PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avation PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price £1.39, calculated fair value £1.81 (+30%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVAP calculated?
We run Avation PLC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £1.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Avation PLC currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £1.39. Our model-based fair value is £1.81, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avation PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£1.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Avation PLC (AVAP) come from?
Earnings per share at Avation PLC grew −4.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate −3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avation PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The market capitalisation of Avation PLC is 90.4M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avation PLC is 1.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Earnings per share at Avation PLC are £0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The dividend yield of Avation PLC is 0.5% (payout 7.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The net margin of Avation PLC is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avation PLC is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avation PLC is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avation PLC (AVAP)?
The operating margin of Avation PLC is 46.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Revenue at Avation PLC is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avation PLC (AVAP)?
Earnings per share at Avation PLC are growing +562% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Avation PLC (AVAP) generate?
The free cash flow of Avation PLC is −$8.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Avation PLC (AVAP) carry?
The net debt of Avation PLC is $474M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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