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AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of AviChina Industry & Technology Company $0.66, price $0.37, upside +78.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · Home China · ISIN CNE1000001Y8

AI AviChina Industry & Technology Company logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AviChina Industry & Technology Company

AVIJF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.6600 · Strongly undervalued (+78.4%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!18.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.6331 $0.3258 Fair Value $0.6600 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3258 – $0.6331 · fair‑value band $0.5000 – $0.8400 · the $0.3700 price screens below the $0.6600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of civil aviation and defense products in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aviation Entire Aircraft Business, Aviation Ancillary System and Related Business, and Aviation Engineering Services Business.

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AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of civil aviation and defense products in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aviation Entire Aircraft Business, Aviation Ancillary System and Related Business, and Aviation Engineering Services Business. The company is involved in the manufacturing and sale of defense and civil aviation products, such as helicopters, trainer and general-purpose aircraft, and regional jets; and aviation ancillary system products, including connectors, mechanical electronics, avionics products, and its accessories. It also offers component products, including optical and electrical interconnection components, cable assemblies, system interconnection equipment, and fluid devices and equipment that are used in aviation, aerospace and other military fields, communications and data transmission, new energy vehicles, rail transportation, consumer electronics, industry, energy, medical care, intelligent equipment, and other civilian manufacturing areas; and avionic system/equipment for military aircraft, such as avionic and flight control systems. In addition, the company provides aircraft power systems, which include power distribution, secondary power supplies, generators and controllers, and circuit breakers; fire prevention systems; environmental control systems that comprise sensitive components and sensors; engine ignition systems and accessories; and other aviation related investment activities. Further, it offers aviation engineering services, such as planning, design, consultation, construction, and operation services. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Aviation Industry Corporation of China, Ltd.

Stock analysis

AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) currently trades at $0.3700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6600, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.8600 per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the $0.3700 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1800, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.5000 (bear) to $0.8400 (bull), the price of $0.3700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

AviChina Industry & Technology Company reported revenue of 87.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 60.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 3.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 78%, AVIJF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5000 Fair Value $0.6600 Bull $0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $0.6900 $0.8600 $1.16 77
Residual Income $0.4900 $0.5000 $0.5200 75
EPV $1.15 $1.26 $1.35 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.6900 $0.8600 $1.16 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.2200 $1.13 $1.56 61
Lynch FV $0.3100 $0.4400 $0.5700 58
PEG = 1.0 $0.3100 $0.4400 $0.5700 55
EPV $1.15 $1.26 $1.35 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1000 $0.2100 $0.3100 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1000 $0.1800 $0.2200 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.5100 $0.6700 $0.8400 61
P/S Multiple $0.4100 $0.5500 $0.6800 56
P/B Multiple $0.4100 $0.5500 $0.6800 53
EV/EBIT $1.54 $1.89 $2.25 65
EV/EBITDA $1.88 $2.35 $2.82 66
EV/Revenue $1.24 $1.56 $1.89 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3300 $0.4400 $0.6500 53
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.4900 $0.5000 $0.5200 75
ROIC Compounder $1.23 $1.44 $1.69 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.4600 $0.6600 $0.8600 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.9% vs 4.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +81.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.9% · Below median
Return on assets 1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 18.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.8× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $312.29 $92.61 −70%
RTX Corporation RTX $185.01 $88.30 −52%
Airbus SE AIR €185.60 €112.14 −40%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $509.25 $439.62 −14%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $230.94 $52.67 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $334.16 $274.19 −18%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $504.61 $382.98 −24%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,116 $1,228 +10%
Thales S.A HO €222.70 €170.99 −23%
Rheinmetall AG RHM €956.90 €313.19 −67%

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AviChina Industry & Technology Company · Fair Value
$0.6600 +44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AviChina Industry & Technology Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVIJF

Frequently asked questions

Is AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6600 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.3700, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVIJF?
Our model-based fair value for AviChina Industry & Technology Company is $0.6600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.3700.
What is the quality score of AVIJF?
AviChina Industry & Technology Company has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5000, optimistic scenario $0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AviChina Industry & Technology Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6600, about +78% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.3700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5000, optimistic scenario $0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
AviChina Industry & Technology Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 89.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AviChina Industry & Technology Company it is $0.6600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.3700. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AviChina Industry & Technology Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVIJF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3700, fair value $0.6600, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVIJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6600). For AviChina Industry & Technology Company the two are $0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AviChina Industry & Technology Company worth?
The market values AviChina Industry & Technology Company at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.3700; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVIJF?
Our models span a range for AviChina Industry & Technology Company: cautious scenario $0.5000, base $0.6600, optimistic $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.3700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVIJF?
AviChina Industry & Technology Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6600 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AviChina Industry & Technology Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVIJF from its 52-week high?
AviChina Industry & Technology Company trades at $0.3700, about 34% below its 52-week high of $0.5572 and at the low of $0.3700 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AviChina Industry & Technology Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AviChina Industry & Technology Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.3700, calculated fair value $0.6600 (+78%), Quality Score 36/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVIJF calculated?
We run AviChina Industry & Technology Company through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AviChina Industry & Technology Company currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.3700. Our model-based fair value is $0.6600, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AviChina Industry & Technology Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5000). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) come from?
Earnings per share at AviChina Industry & Technology Company grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.6 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AviChina Industry & Technology Company

How large is the market capitalisation of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The market capitalisation of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Earnings per share at AviChina Industry & Technology Company are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The net margin of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
The operating margin of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Revenue at AviChina Industry & Technology Company is growing −2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF)?
Earnings per share at AviChina Industry & Technology Company are growing −21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) generate?
The free cash flow of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is −12.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AviChina Industry & Technology Company (AVIJF) carry?
The net debt of AviChina Industry & Technology Company is 2.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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