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Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Advance Metals Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.05, upside -43.3%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000227720

AM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Advance Metals Ltd

AVM · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0306 · Strongly overvalued (−43%)
!Quality 20/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +116.9 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4600 A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0306 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0200 – A$0.4600 · fair‑value band A$0.0256 – A$0.0356 · the A$0.0540 price screens above the A$0.0306 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Advance Metals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals projects in Mexico and Australia. The company explores for gold and silver deposits. It holds interests in the Yoquivo silver project located in Chihuahua State, Mexico.

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Advance Metals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals projects in Mexico and Australia. The company explores for gold and silver deposits. It holds interests in the Yoquivo silver project located in Chihuahua State, Mexico. The company also has interest in the Gavilanes Silver Project located in the Durango State, Mexico; the Guadalupe y Calvo GoldSilver Project located in Chihuahua, Mexico; and Myrtleford and Beaufort Gold Projects located in Victoria, Australia. The company was formerly known as Pacific American Holdings Limited and changed its name to Advance Metals Limited in June 2022. Advance Metals Limited is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.

Stock analysis

Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) currently trades at A$0.0540, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0306, implying the stock looks roughly 76.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0256 (bear) to A$0.0356 (bull), the price of A$0.0540 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Advance Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$72.0K in FY2025 versus A$890 in FY2021, a compound +199.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$35.0M (≈ $24.5M) · Return on equity −46.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.1% · Operating margin 15,559,000% · Revenue (TTM) A$72.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) +79.5% · Free cash flow −A$2.6M · Net cash A$11.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −43%, AVM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0256 Fair Value A$0.0306 Bull A$0.0356
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+79.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+111.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+116.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−55,655.8% (2020) → −10,409.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AVM screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Warrior Met Coal, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 27 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −43% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −29% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 80% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal

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Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 ¥5.13 ¥3.06 −40%
Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 ¥2.88 ¥1.32 −54%
SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC $9.83 $2.86 −71%
Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 ¥7.22 ¥7.94 +10%

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A$0.0306 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advance Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVM

Frequently asked questions

Is Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0306 versus a price of A$0.0540, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVM?
Our model-based fair value for Advance Metals Ltd is A$0.0306 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0540.
What is the quality score of AVM?
Advance Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0306 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0256, optimistic scenario A$0.0356. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advance Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0306, about −43% upside versus a price of A$0.0540 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0256, optimistic scenario A$0.0356. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Advance Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$72.0K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advance Metals Ltd it is A$0.0306 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0540. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advance Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AVM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0540, fair value A$0.0306, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0540); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0306). For Advance Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0234 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advance Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Advance Metals Ltd at about A$35.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0540; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0306 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVM?
Our models span a range for Advance Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0256, base A$0.0306, optimistic A$0.0356 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0540). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advance Metals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −46.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVM from its 52-week high?
Advance Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0540, about 71% below its 52-week high of A$0.1850 and at the low of A$0.0540 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0306 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advance Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advance Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0540, calculated fair value A$0.0306 (−43%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVM calculated?
We run Advance Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0306, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Advance Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0540. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0306, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advance Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0356). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Advance Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The market capitalisation of Advance Metals Ltd is A$35.0M (≈ $24.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advance Metals Ltd is −46.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advance Metals Ltd is −20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The operating margin of Advance Metals Ltd is 15,559,000% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Revenue at Advance Metals Ltd is growing +79.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +111%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) generate?
The free cash flow of Advance Metals Ltd is −A$2.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) hold?
Advance Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$11.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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