Advance Metals Limited (AVM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$31.6M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0359). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0200 – A$0.4600 · fair‑value band A$0.0247 – A$0.0359 · the A$0.0670 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Advance Metals Limited (AVM) currently trades at A$0.0670, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, implying the stock looks roughly 49.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$72.0K. Revenue grew 79.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -46.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$11.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0247 (bear case) to A$0.0359 (bull case); at A$0.0670, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -49%, AVM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Advance Metals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals projects in Mexico and Australia. The company explores for gold and silver deposits. It holds interests in the Yoquivo silver project located in Chihuahua State, Mexico.
Full company description
Advance Metals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals projects in Mexico and Australia. The company explores for gold and silver deposits. It holds interests in the Yoquivo silver project located in Chihuahua State, Mexico. The company also has interest in the Gavilanes Silver Project located in the Durango State, Mexico; the Guadalupe y Calvo GoldSilver Project located in Chihuahua, Mexico; and Myrtleford and Beaufort Gold Projects located in Victoria, Australia. The company was formerly known as Pacific American Holdings Limited and changed its name to Advance Metals Limited in June 2022. Advance Metals Limited is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Advance Metals Limited reported revenue of A$72.0K in FY2025 versus A$890 in FY2021, a compound +199.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.4M in FY2025.
AVM screens 49% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $78.91 | $18.35 | -77% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $143.80 | $45.29 | -69% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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