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Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Advance Metals Ltd stock A$0.03, price A$0.04, that is 23.2% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000227720

AM Advance Metals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Advance Metals Ltd

AVM · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +15% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +116.9 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0307 · Overvalued
Quality 34/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/6)
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4600 A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0307 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0200 – A$0.4600 · fair‑value band A$0.0270 – A$0.0344 · the A$0.0400 price screens above the A$0.0307 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Advance Metals Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals projects in Mexico and Australia. The company explores for gold and silver deposits. It holds interests in the Yoquivo silver project located in Chihuahua State, Mexico.

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The company also has interest in the Gavilanes Silver Project located in the Durango State, Mexico; the Guadalupe y Calvo GoldSilver Project located in Chihuahua, Mexico; and Myrtleford and Beaufort Gold Projects located in Victoria, Australia.

The company was formerly known as Pacific American Holdings Limited and changed its name to Advance Metals Limited in June 2022. Advance Metals Limited is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.

Stock analysis

Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) currently trades at A$0.0400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0307, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0270 (bear) to A$0.0344 (bull), the price of A$0.0400 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Advance Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$72.0K in FY2025 versus A$890 in FY2021, a compound +199.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$19.2M (≈ $13.2M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −67.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −293,300% · Revenue growth (YoY) +15.0% · Free cash flow −A$6.8M · Net cash A$11.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −23%, AVM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0270 Fair Value A$0.0307 Bull A$0.0344
Price A$0.0400 · Downside -23.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 31
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+79.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+111.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+116.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−55,655.8% (2020) → −10,409.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AVM screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Warrior Met Coal, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 20 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −31.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 15.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.84× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)75 · sector 62
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 25

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal

Similar stocks

10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 HK$2.55 HK$3.68 +44% vs AVM
Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 ¥5.38 ¥6.12 +14% vs AVM
PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR 1,310 IDR 1,238 IDR −6% vs AVM
Mongolian Mining Corporation 0975 HK$6.89 HK$5.60 −19% vs AVM
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 ¥3.24 ¥2.48 −23% vs AVM
Shanxi Coking Co 600740 ¥3.50 ¥2.38 −32% vs AVM
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR $147.93 $92.08 −38% vs AVM
SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC $9.80 $5.64 −42% vs AVM
Coronado Global Resources Inc CODQL $0.1050 $0.0400 −62% vs AVM
Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC $84.15 $28.76 −66% vs AVM

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Advance Metals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advance Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVM

Frequently asked questions

Is Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0307 versus a price of A$0.0400, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVM?
Our model-based fair value for Advance Metals Ltd is A$0.0307 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0400.
What is the quality score of AVM?
Advance Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0307 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0270, optimistic scenario A$0.0344. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advance Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0307, about 23% lower versus a price of A$0.0400 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0270, optimistic scenario A$0.0344. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advance Metals Ltd it is A$0.0307 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.0400. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Advance Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AVM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0400, fair value A$0.0307, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0307). For Advance Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0093 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advance Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Advance Metals Ltd at about A$19.2M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0400; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0307 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVM?
Our models span a range for Advance Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0270, base A$0.0307, optimistic A$0.0344 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.0400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advance Metals Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −67.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVM from its 52-week high?
Advance Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0400, about 78% below its 52-week high of A$0.1850 and 29% above the low of A$0.0310 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0307 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advance Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Coronado Global Resources Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advance Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.0400, calculated fair value A$0.0307 (−23%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVM calculated?
We run Advance Metals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0307 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Advance Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0400. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0307, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advance Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0344). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Advance Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The market capitalisation of Advance Metals Ltd is A$19.2M (≈ $13.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Earnings per share at Advance Metals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advance Metals Ltd is −67.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advance Metals Ltd is −20.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
The operating margin of Advance Metals Ltd is −293,300% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advance Metals Ltd (AVM)?
Revenue at Advance Metals Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +111%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) generate?
The free cash flow of Advance Metals Ltd is −A$6.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Advance Metals Ltd (AVM) hold?
Advance Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$11.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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