Avon Protection PLC (AVON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Avon Protection PLC £3.37, price £18.02, upside -81.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value £3.37 · Strongly overvalued (−81.3%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers(5/14)
!Moderate moat45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £5.71 – £26.47 · fair‑value band £2.25 – £5.04 · the £18.02 price screens above the £3.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Avon Technologies Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides respiratory and head protection products for the military and first responder markets in Europe and the United States. It operates through Avon Protection and Team Wendy segments.
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Avon Technologies Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides respiratory and head protection products for the military and first responder markets in Europe and the United States. It operates through Avon Protection and Team Wendy segments. The company offers respirators, escape hoods, thermal imaging cameras, powered and supplied air, rebreathers, and underwater systems; spares and accessories, such as replacement filters, outserts, and communication systems; chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear protective wear. It also provides ballistic and bump protection helmets; and liner and retention systems. The company offers its products under the Avon Protection and Team Wendy brands. In addition, it is involved in investment and pension fund trustee activities. Avon Technologies Plc was formerly known as Avon Protection plc and changed its name to Avon Technologies Plc in July 2024. Avon Technologies Plc was incorporated in 1890 and is based in Melksham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Avon Protection PLC (AVON) currently trades at £18.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.37, 81.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £3.61 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the £18.02 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.36, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £2.25 (bear) to £5.04 (bull), the price of £18.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Avon Protection PLC reported revenue of $240M in FY2025 versus $245M in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $7.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 552M GBX · P/E ratio 40.0 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) £0.4500 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −81%, AVON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.25Fair Value £3.37Bull £5.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2649 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.4% vs −7.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.5% a year for the price and +17.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets5.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)40.0× · Pricier than median
P/B4.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.24× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF62.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 51
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Avon Protection PLC (AVON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.37 versus a price of £18.02, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVON?
Our model-based fair value for Avon Protection PLC is £3.37 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £18.02.
What is the quality score of AVON?
Avon Protection PLC has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.37 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.25, optimistic scenario £5.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avon Protection PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.37, about −81% upside versus a price of £18.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £2.25, optimistic scenario £5.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Avon Protection PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £326M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Avon Protection PLC pay a dividend?
Avon Protection PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avon Protection PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +29.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVON use?
Our models discount Avon Protection PLC at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avon Protection PLC that is +29.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avon Protection PLC (AVON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avon Protection PLC grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +29.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avon Protection PLC (AVON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avon Protection PLC (+29.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.11 %: that much free cash flow Avon Protection PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avon Protection PLC it is £3.37 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of £18.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avon Protection PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AVON trades above its calculated fair value: price £18.02, fair value £3.37, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£18.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.37). For Avon Protection PLC the two are £14.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avon Protection PLC worth?
The market values Avon Protection PLC at about 552M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is £18.02; our models calculate a fair value of £3.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVON?
Our models span a range for Avon Protection PLC: cautious scenario £2.25, base £3.37, optimistic £5.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price £18.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVON?
Avon Protection PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 20.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avon Protection PLC (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVON from its 52-week high?
Avon Protection PLC trades at £18.02, about 15% below its 52-week high of £21.09 and 19% above the low of £15.20 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avon Protection PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avon Protection PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price £18.02, calculated fair value £3.37 (−81%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVON calculated?
We run Avon Protection PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Avon Protection PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was £18.02. Our model-based fair value is £3.37, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avon Protection PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£5.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£2.25 to £5.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Avon Protection PLC (AVON) come from?
Earnings per share at Avon Protection PLC grew −12.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin −9.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avon Protection PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The market capitalisation of Avon Protection PLC is 552M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avon Protection PLC is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Earnings per share at Avon Protection PLC are £0.4500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The dividend yield of Avon Protection PLC is 1.0% (payout 41.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The net margin of Avon Protection PLC is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avon Protection PLC is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avon Protection PLC is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
The operating margin of Avon Protection PLC is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Revenue at Avon Protection PLC is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avon Protection PLC (AVON)?
Earnings per share at Avon Protection PLC are growing +336% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avon Protection PLC (AVON) carry?
The net debt of Avon Protection PLC is 68.0M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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