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AYGAZ Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · TR · Market cap 58.6B TRY

A AYGAZ AYGAZ · IS
Price260.25 TRY
Fair Value345.07 TRY
Upside+32.6%
Quality54/100
Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.71% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Narrow moat 25/100
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Evidence: High Range 235.43 TRY – 448.60 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Share price +21.9% over the past month.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (235.43 TRY to 448.60 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

291.00 TRY 151.46 TRY Fair Value 345.07 TRY Aug 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range 151.46 TRY – 291.00 TRY · fair‑value band 235.43 TRY – 448.60 TRY · the 260.25 TRY price screens below the 345.07 TRY fair value. As of Jul 31, 2026.

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Analysis

AYGAZ (AYGAZ) currently trades at 260.25 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 345.07 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 32.6% undervalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, AYGAZ generated revenue of 74.1B TRY at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue declined 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at 1.7B TRY. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 235.43 TRY (bear case) to 448.60 TRY (bull case); at 260.25 TRY, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at 33%, AYGAZ screens cheaper than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 74.1B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) -13.6%
Net margin 4.2%
Return on equity 5.7%
Free cash flow 561M TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 11.5
More key figures
Operating margin 1.8%
EPS (TTM) 23.27 TRY
Dividend yield 4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +770%
Net debt 1.7B TRY FY2022

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100
Profitability 43
Quality Growth 47
Cashflow 10
Fin. Strength 70
Investment 33
Low Volatility 74
Momentum 64
52W Momentum 88
Net Issuance 82

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aygaz A.S. purchases liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to retailers for distribution to customers in Turkey. It operates through three segments: LPG and Gas, Cargo Transportation and Distribution, and Petroleum Products and Electricity.

Full company description

Aygaz A.S. purchases liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to retailers for distribution to customers in Turkey. It operates through three segments: LPG and Gas, Cargo Transportation and Distribution, and Petroleum Products and Electricity. The company manufactures LPG cylinders and tanks, regulators, and other supplementary materials; and retails and wholesales fuel and lubricants through its autogas stations. It also engages in the purchase and sale of natural gas; arrangement for modulation and storing of natural gas; and building of necessary facilities. In addition, the company purchases, builds, rents, and operates vessels, that transports crude oil, petroleum products, liquid petroleum gas, natural gas and solid, liquid, and liquefied products. Aygaz A.S. was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Sisli, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

AYGAZ reported revenue of 89.7B TRL in FY2025 versus 15.9B TRL in FY2021, a compound +54.1%/yr. Reported net income was 5.0B TRL in FY2025, compounding +65.2%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +54.1%/yr
FY21 15.9B TRL
FY22 37.5B TRL
FY23 93.6B TRL
FY24 107B TRL
FY25 89.7B TRL
Net income +65.2%/yr
FY21 670M TRL
FY22 4.7B TRL
FY23 8.6B TRL
FY24 2.8B TRL
FY25 5.0B TRL

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AYGAZ Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AYGAZ

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 77 / 25
FUTURE 0 / 0
PAST 23 / 33
HEALTH 99 / 83
DIVIDEND 94 / 69

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.58 €35.79 +25%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.27 $87.09 -49%
Snam S.p.A SRG €6.19 €4.95 -20%
Uniper SE UNPRF $50.23 $58.64 +17%
NiSource Inc N1IS34 R$229.31 R$180.28 -21%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company HOKCY $0.8537 $0.4100 -52%
Tokyo Gas Co TKGSF $38.20 $65.41 +71%
Osaka Gas Co OSGSY $69.87 $36.28 -48%
Italgas S.p.A ITGGF $12.23 $10.03 -18%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹168.01 ₹123.97 -26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is AYGAZ overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 345.07 TRY versus a price of 260.25 TRY, about +33% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AYGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for AYGAZ is 345.07 TRY (as of Jul 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 260.25 TRY.
What is the quality score of AYGAZ?
AYGAZ has a Quality Score of 54/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of AYGAZ?
AYGAZ reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 74.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Jul 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AYGAZ?
The net profit margin of AYGAZ is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does AYGAZ pay a dividend?
AYGAZ currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.71% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 31, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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