Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aygaz AS stock TRY 114, price TRY 271, upside -58.1%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.96 TRY – 337.00 TRY · fair‑value band 92.71 TRY – 148.88 TRY · the 271.00 TRY price screens above the 113.65 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Aygaz A.S. purchases liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to retailers for distribution to customers in Turkey. It operates through three segments: LPG and Gas, Cargo Transportation and Distribution, and Petroleum Products and Electricity.
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The company manufactures LPG cylinders and tanks, regulators, and other supplementary materials; and retails and wholesales fuel and lubricants through its autogas stations.
It also engages in the purchase and sale of natural gas; arrangement for modulation and storing of natural gas; and building of necessary facilities.
In addition, the company purchases, builds, rents, and operates vessels, that transports crude oil, petroleum products, liquid petroleum gas, natural gas and solid, liquid, and liquefied products. Aygaz A.S. was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Sisli, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) currently trades at 271.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 113.65 TRY, 58.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 311.52 TRY per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the 271.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 20.91 TRY, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 92.71 TRY (bear) to 148.88 TRY (bull), the price of 271.00 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aygaz AS reported revenue of 89.7B TRL in FY2025 versus 15.9B TRL in FY2021, a compound +54.1%/yr. Reported net income was 5.0B TRL in FY2025, compounding +65.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 59.6B TRY (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) 23.40 TRY · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −58%, AYGAZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear92.71 TRYFair Value 113.65 TRYBull148.88 TRY
Price 271.00 TRY · Upside -58.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (8.98 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+88.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.0%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+75.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+70.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+53.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.0% a year for the price and −13.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−58.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets6.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.75× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow106.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG5.54× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)93· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aygaz AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AYGAZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 113.65 TRY versus a price of 271.00 TRY, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AYGAZ?
Our model-based fair value for Aygaz AS is 113.65 TRY (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 271.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of AYGAZ?
Aygaz AS has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 113.65 TRY (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 92.71 TRY, optimistic scenario 148.88 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aygaz AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 113.65 TRY, about −58% upside versus a price of 271.00 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 92.71 TRY, optimistic scenario 148.88 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Aygaz AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 79.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Aygaz AS pay a dividend?
Aygaz AS currently shows a dividend yield of 4.63% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aygaz AS would have to grow free cash flow by +53.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +54.6 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AYGAZ use?
Our models discount Aygaz AS at 14.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aygaz AS that is +53.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aygaz AS grew +54.6 % a year. The price currently implies +53.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aygaz AS (+53.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.94 %: that much free cash flow Aygaz AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aygaz AS it is 113.65 TRY per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of 271.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aygaz AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, AYGAZ trades above its calculated fair value: price 271.00 TRY, fair value 113.65 TRY, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYGAZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (271.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (113.65 TRY). For Aygaz AS the two are 157.35 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aygaz AS worth?
The market values Aygaz AS at about 59.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is 271.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 113.65 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYGAZ?
Our models span a range for Aygaz AS: cautious scenario 92.71 TRY, base 113.65 TRY, optimistic 148.88 TRY per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price 271.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AYGAZ?
Aygaz AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 113.65 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AYGAZ?
The PEG ratio of Aygaz AS is 5.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aygaz AS (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYGAZ from its 52-week high?
Aygaz AS trades at 271.00 TRY, about 20% below its 52-week high of 337.00 TRY and 46% above the low of 185.47 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 113.65 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aygaz AS?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aygaz AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price 271.00 TRY, calculated fair value 113.65 TRY (−58%), Quality Score 45/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYGAZ calculated?
We run Aygaz AS through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 113.65 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Aygaz AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 271.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 113.65 TRY, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aygaz AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (148.88 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aygaz AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The market capitalisation of Aygaz AS is 59.6B TRY (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aygaz AS is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Aygaz AS are 23.40 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The dividend yield of Aygaz AS is 4.6% (payout 53.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The net margin of Aygaz AS is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aygaz AS is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aygaz AS is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
The operating margin of Aygaz AS is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Revenue at Aygaz AS is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aygaz AS (AYGAZ)?
Earnings per share at Aygaz AS are growing +236% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aygaz AS (AYGAZ) carry?
The net debt of Aygaz AS is 1.7B TRY (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026