Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Agro Yasa Lestari Tbk designs, supplies, and installs geosynthetics in Indonesia. It offers gabions, asphalt bitumen, geosyinthetics, geogrid, ESSO paving asphalt, geobags, and geotextile fabrics. PT Agro Yasa Lestari Tbk was founded in 2010 and is based in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Agro Yasa Lestari Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Anugrah Cakrawala Dunia.
Stock analysis
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) currently trades at 150.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.69 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 661.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 26.96 IDR per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the 150.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 11.83 IDR, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11.32 IDR (bear) to 30.65 IDR (bull), the price of 150.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk reported revenue of 22.7B IDR in FY2025 versus 2.0B IDR in FY2021, a compound +83.8%/yr. Reported net income was −7.2B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 128B IDR (≈ $12.8M) · P/S ratio 5.67 · EPS (TTM) −2.13 IDR · Net margin −31.6% · Return on equity −21.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.1% · Operating margin −551% · Revenue (TTM) 22.7B IDR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −87%, AYLS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 11.32 IDRFair Value 19.69 IDRBull 30.65 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
’16
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’19
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−43.4% (2020) → −49.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−20% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−36% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−180% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.69 IDR versus a price of 150.00 IDR, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AYLS?
Our model-based fair value for Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is 19.69 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 150.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of AYLS?
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.69 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.32 IDR, optimistic scenario 30.65 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.69 IDR, about −87% upside versus a price of 150.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 11.32 IDR, optimistic scenario 30.65 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.7B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +56.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AYLS use?
Our models discount Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk that is +56.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies +56.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (+56.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.54 %: that much free cash flow Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk it is 19.69 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 150.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AYLS trades above its calculated fair value: price 150.00 IDR, fair value 19.69 IDR, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (150.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.69 IDR). For Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk the two are 130.31 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk worth?
The market values Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk at about 128B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 150.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 19.69 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYLS?
Our models span a range for Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk: cautious scenario 11.32 IDR, base 19.69 IDR, optimistic 30.65 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 150.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −22.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYLS from its 52-week high?
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk trades at 150.00 IDR, about 53% below its 52-week high of 322.00 IDR and 65% above the low of 91.00 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.69 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 150.00 IDR, calculated fair value 19.69 IDR (−87%), Quality Score 59/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYLS calculated?
We run Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.69 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (30.65 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (11.32 IDR to 30.65 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The market capitalisation of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is 128B IDR (≈ $12.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is 5.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Earnings per share at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk are −2.13 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The net margin of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is −31.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is −21.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is −11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
The operating margin of Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is −551% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Revenue at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS)?
Earnings per share at Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk are growing −98.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk (AYLS) hold?
Agro Yasa Lestari PT Tbk holds more cash than debt, 1.1B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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