Azul S.A (AZLUY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.7B
Azul S.A
AZLUY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 51% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.30 – $992,294 · fair‑value band $10.34 – $14.86 · the $8.48 price screens below the $12.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Azul S.A (AZLUY) currently trades at $8.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.80, implying the stock looks roughly 51.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Azul S.A generated revenue of $21.7B at a net margin of 20.7%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $22.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.34 (bear case) to $14.86 (bull case); at $8.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 51%, AZLUY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($165.86) versus Earnings-Based ($6.94). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is also involved in the cargo or postal; passenger charter; development of frequent-flyer programs; intellectual property owner; travel packages; funding: aircraft financing; and provision of maintenance and hangarage services for aircraft, …
Full company description
Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is also involved in the cargo or postal; passenger charter; development of frequent-flyer programs; intellectual property owner; travel packages; funding: aircraft financing; and provision of maintenance and hangarage services for aircraft, engines, parts and pieces, aircraft acquisition, and lease services. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated approximately 970 daily departures to 160 destinations through a network of 390 non-stop routes; with an operating fleet of 176 aircraft and a passenger contractual fleet of 227 aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Barueri, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Azul S.A reported revenue of $21.6B in FY2025 versus $15.9B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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