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Azul S.A (AZLUY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Azul S.A $17.65, price $8.48, upside +108.1%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US

AS Azul S.A logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Azul S.A

AZLUY · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $17.65 · Strongly undervalued (+108.1%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +10.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.7% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Ranks above peers (6/9)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $5.14 to $30.15
!Weak on future: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$992,294 $8.30 Fair Value $17.65 Mar 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.30 – $992,294 · fair‑value band $5.14 – $30.15 · the $8.48 price screens below the $17.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally.

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Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Brazil and internationally. It is also involved in the cargo or postal; passenger charter; development of frequent-flyer programs; intellectual property owner; travel packages; funding: aircraft financing; and provision of maintenance and hangarage services for aircraft, engines, parts and pieces, aircraft acquisition, and lease services. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated approximately 970 daily departures to 160 destinations through a network of 390 non-stop routes; with an operating fleet of 176 aircraft and a passenger contractual fleet of 227 aircraft. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Barueri, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Azul S.A (AZLUY) currently trades at $8.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.65, implying the stock looks roughly 52.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $123.02 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the $8.48 price.

Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $2.28, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $5.14 (bear) to $30.15 (bull), the price of $8.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Azul S.A reported revenue of R$21.6B in FY2025 versus R$15.9B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$125M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) $826,849 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 12.4% · Revenue (TTM) R$21.7B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 108%, AZLUY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.14 Fair Value $17.65 Bull $30.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($625,234 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $73.93 $123.02 $194.95 72
EPV $11.96 $14.81 $17.19 71
ROIC Compounder $11.96 $14.81 $17.19 69
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $73.93 $123.02 $194.95 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.8900 $3.69 $5.02 61
Lynch FV $0.9300 $1.33 $1.73 58
PEG = 1.0 $0.9300 $1.33 $1.73 55
EPV $11.96 $14.81 $17.19 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.06 $2.74 $3.43 63
P/S Multiple $1.67 $2.22 $2.78 58
EV/EBIT $33.27 $47.35 $61.44 65
EV/EBITDA $54.06 $75.08 $96.09 67
EV/Revenue $19.54 $31.76 $43.98 53
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $11.96 $14.81 $17.19 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.59 $2.28 $2.96 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.0% (2022) → 14.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +108.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.08× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)7 · sector 73
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 49

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.13 $121.83 +45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $111.51 $149.61 +34%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €23.79 €48.63 +104%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $42.28 $14.74 −65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹4,940 ₹3,073 −38%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 6.65 SGD 7.88 SGD +18%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.45 $106.79 +104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.86 ¥2.78 −43%
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 HK$14.37 HK$31.02 +116%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.60 €9.90 +30%

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Azul S.A · Fair Value
$17.65 +52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Azul S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AZLUY

Frequently asked questions

Is Azul S.A (AZLUY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.65 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $8.48, about +108% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AZLUY?
Our model-based fair value for Azul S.A is $17.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): $8.48.
What is the quality score of AZLUY?
Azul S.A has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.14, optimistic scenario $30.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Azul S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.65, about +108% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $8.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.14, optimistic scenario $30.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Azul S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$21.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Azul S.A pay a dividend?
Azul S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Azul S.A it is $17.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.48. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Azul S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AZLUY trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.48, fair value $17.65, a gap of about +108% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AZLUY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.65). For Azul S.A the two are $9.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Azul S.A worth?
The market values Azul S.A at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.48; our models calculate a fair value of $17.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AZLUY?
Our models span a range for Azul S.A: cautious scenario $5.14, base $17.65, optimistic $30.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Azul S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Azul S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Azul S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.48, calculated fair value $17.65 (+108%), Quality Score 34/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AZLUY calculated?
We run Azul S.A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Azul S.A currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at $8.48. Our model-based fair value is $17.65, about +108% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Azul S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($5.14 to $30.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Azul S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The market capitalisation of Azul S.A is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Azul S.A is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Earnings per share at Azul S.A are $826,849. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The dividend yield of Azul S.A is 0.8% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The net margin of Azul S.A is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Azul S.A is 8.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
The operating margin of Azul S.A is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Revenue at Azul S.A is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Azul S.A (AZLUY)?
Earnings per share at Azul S.A are growing +576% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Azul S.A (AZLUY) generate?
The free cash flow of Azul S.A is −R$2.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Azul S.A (AZLUY) carry?
The net debt of Azul S.A is R$22.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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