Black Pearl Group (BPG) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · AU · Market cap A$38.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −26.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1275). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0680 to A$0.1275) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (8 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
8‑month range A$0.2950 – A$1.12 · fair‑value band A$0.0680 – A$0.1275 · the A$0.2950 price screens above the A$0.0850 fair value. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Black Pearl Group (BPG) currently trades at A$0.2950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0850, implying the stock looks roughly 71.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0680 (bear case) to A$0.1275 (bull case); at A$0.2950, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -71%, BPG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Black Pearl Group Limited, a technology company, builds, acquires, and markets data driven cloud-based services. It offers a suite of productivity and digital marketing applications for small and medium-sized businesses. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Black Pearl Group reported revenue of A$13.7M in FY2026 versus A$1.4M in FY2023, a compound +112.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$17.8M in FY2026.
BPG screens 71% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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