BrightSpire Capital, Inc (BRSP) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $713M
BrightSpire Capital, Inc
BRSP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.59 to $6.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.67 – $6.25 · fair‑value band $3.59 – $6.53 · the $5.12 price screens above the $3.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
BrightSpire Capital, Inc (BRSP) currently trades at $5.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.59, implying the stock looks roughly 29.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BrightSpire Capital, Inc generated revenue of $336M at a net margin of -9.4%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.1%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.59 (bear case) to $6.53 (bull case); at $5.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -30%, BRSP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($6.13) versus Multiples ($3.66). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States and Norway. It operates through Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other segments.
Full company description
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust in the United States and Norway. It operates through Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other segments. The company focuses on originating, acquiring, financing, and managing a diversified portfolio of CRE debt investments consisting of senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity investments, net leased real estate and other real estate properties, and CRE debt securities. It also engages in money market activities; and invests in private equity funds. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpire Capital, Inc. in June 2021. BrightSpire Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BrightSpire Capital, Inc reported revenue of $332M in FY2025 versus $323M in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.1M in FY2025.
BRSP screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Reminder - BrightSpire Capital (BRSP) Goes Ex-Dividend Soon
- BrightSpire (BRSP) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- BrightSpire BRSP Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
- BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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