BAE Systems plc (BSP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €68.8B
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Fair value updated Jun 24, 2026 — revised from €12.55 to €12.58 (+0.2%) since Jun 23, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range €16.47 – €24.66 · fair‑value band €7.92 – €17.91 · the €21.17 price screens above the €12.58 fair value. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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BAE Systems plc (BSP) currently trades at €21.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.58 — implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BAE Systems plc generated revenue of €28.3B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. Net debt stands at €7.1B. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.92 (bear case) to €17.91 (bull case); at €21.17, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside — at -41%, BSP screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Electronic Systems, Platforms & Services, Air, Maritime, and Cyber & Intelligence. The Electronic Systems segment offers electronic warfare systems, navigation systems, electro-optical sensors, military and commercial avionics, and precision guided solutions and communications systems, as well as space electronics, spacecraft, and ground and tactical systems. The Platforms & Services segment manufactures and sells combat vehicles, weapons, and munitions; and offers naval ship repair services, as well as operates and manages two government-owned and contractor-operated ammunition plants. The Air segment develops future combat air systems and falconworks alongside edgewing, and eurofighter and MBDA. The Maritime segment provides maritime and land …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BAE Systems plc reported revenue of €28.4B in FY2025 versus €19.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | C$46.59 | C$22.78 | -51% |
| RTX Corporation RYTT34 | R$156.64 | R$17.06 | -89% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BCO | €198.20 | €51.07 | -74% |
| Safran SA SAFRY | $94.69 | $58.09 | -39% |
| Rolls-Royce Holdings RYCEY | $18.79 | $9.46 | -50% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMTB34 | R$2,721 | R$2,029 | -25% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $249.33 | $60.21 | -76% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | 5,976 MXN | 5,612 MXN | -6% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOCG34 | R$557.70 | R$295.16 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.
Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.