BAE Systems plc (BSP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €62.9B · ISIN GB0002634946
What is BAE Systems plc really worth?
A solid business, but trading 58% above our fair value of €14.44.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of BAE Systems plc is €14.44 per share against a price of €22.85, so the fair value sits 37% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from €14.50 to €14.44 (−0.4%) since Aug 29, 2026. Share price −9.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€9.22 to €18.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.39 – €26.82 · fair‑value band €9.22 – €18.66 · the €22.85 price screens above the €14.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
BAE Systems plc (BSP) currently trades at €22.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.44, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €12.57 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €22.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.69, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, BAE Systems plc generated revenue of €28.3B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. Net debt stands at €7.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.22 (bear case) to €18.66 (bull case); at €22.85, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −37%, BSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2913 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€12.57) versus Asset-Based (€2.69). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
Notify me when BSP reaches fair value
Put BSP on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Electronic Systems, Platforms & Services, Air, Maritime, and Cyber & Intelligence.
Full company description
BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Electronic Systems, Platforms & Services, Air, Maritime, and Cyber & Intelligence. The Electronic Systems segment offers electronic warfare systems, navigation systems, electro-optical sensors, military and commercial avionics, and precision guided solutions and communications systems, as well as space electronics, spacecraft, and ground and tactical systems. The Platforms & Services segment manufactures and sells combat vehicles, weapons, and munitions; and offers naval ship repair services, as well as operates and manages two government-owned and contractor-operated ammunition plants. The Air segment develops future combat air systems and falconworks alongside edgewing, and eurofighter and MBDA. The Maritime segment provides maritime and land services, including submarine, ship build, and support programs. The Cyber & Intelligence segment offers cyber security services for national security, central government, and government enterprises. The company was formerly known as British Aerospace plc and changed its name to BAE Systems plc in May 2000. BAE Systems plc was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BAE Systems plc reported revenue of £28.4B in FY2025 versus £19.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was £2.1B in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BSP screens 58% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
Compare BAE Systems plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is BAE Systems plc (BSP) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of BSP?
What is the quality score of BSP?
What is the price target for BAE Systems plc (BSP)?
What is the BAE Systems plc stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of BAE Systems plc (BSP)?
What is the net profit margin of BSP?
Does BAE Systems plc pay a dividend?
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Open the live analysis →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.