BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BWX Technologies Inc stock $44.84, price $122, that is 63.1% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.72 – $238.10 · fair‑value band $24.90 – $60.18 · the $121.50 price screens above the $44.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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BWX Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Government Operations and Commercial Operations.
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It manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors, and nuclear fuel; close-tolerance and high-quality equipment for nuclear applications; critical nuclear components, fuels and assemblies for government and limited other uses; down blend government stockpiles of uranium; and fabricate fuel-bearing precision components.
The company also supplies proprietary and sole-source valves, manifolds, and fittings to naval and commercial shipping customers; research reactor fuel elements for colleges, universities, and national laboratories; and components for defense applications.
In addition, it manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers, tooling delivery systems; and containers for the storage of nuclear fuel and other high-level nuclear waste.
Further, the company supplies nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, tooling delivery systems, nuclear-grade materials and precisely machined components; and manufactures medical radioisotopes, radiopharmaceuticals, and medical devices.
Additionally, it provides specialized engineering services that include structural component design, 3-D thermal-hydraulic engineering analysis, weld and robotic process development, electrical and controls engineering and metallurgy and materials engineering; in-plant inspection, maintenance and modification services; and non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions.
It also offers nuclear power plant lifecycle support and management services. The company was formerly known as The Babcock & Wilcox Company and changed its name to BWX Technologies, Inc. in June 2015. BWX Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia.
Stock analysis
BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) currently trades at $121.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.84, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $66.27 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $121.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.94, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.90 (bear) to $60.18 (bull), the price of $121.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BWX Technologies Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $330M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.2B Large · P/E ratio 29.9 · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $4.07 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 28.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −63%, BWXT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$24.90Fair Value $44.84Bull$60.18
Price $121.50 · Downside -63.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.3M and none bought.
SaleRex D GevedenPresident and CEO, Director4× since Nov 12, 2025: 40,000 shares, avg. $194.62$7.8MAug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael Thomas FitzgeraldSVP & Chief Financial Officer2,417 shares at $209.25$505,757May 11, 2026
SaleKevin James GormanVP & Chief Accounting Officer1,344 shares at $214.71$288,570Mar 2, 2026
SaleGerhard F BurbachDirector1,983 shares at $208.61$413,674Feb 25, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Per share before 2015divided by the spin-off factor 1.398
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 11.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.8% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat signals from ROE and cash flow form the main strength, while thin public qualitative data on capabilities and trends remains the key weakness.
Main risk: A large share of revenue comes from US government and Navy contracts for nuclear fuel and reactors, so shifts in defense budgets or procurement priorities could reduce order volumes and hit revenue stability.
Bull case: The company could leverage its naval nuclear expertise and clearances to win more commercial microreactor and SMR projects, diversifying revenue away from government work.
Bear case: If US defense budgets face cuts or policy shifts reduce naval nuclear spending, the core government segment could see lower volumes and pressure on overall results.
BWXT has supplied nuclear fuel and reactors for US Navy submarines and carriers for over sixty years. Its BANR microreactor was just selected for an Indigenous-led transportable nuclear power plant project in Canada that could serve as a blueprint for wider commercial use. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued, yet will the steady naval work or these new applications deliver steadier expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−63.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B9.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.18× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow37.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA26.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.67× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)18· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.84 versus a price of $121.50, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BWXT?
Our model-based fair value for BWX Technologies Inc is $44.84 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $121.50.
What is the quality score of BWXT?
BWX Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.84 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.90, optimistic scenario $60.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BWX Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.84, about 63% lower versus a price of $121.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.90, optimistic scenario $60.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
BWX Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does BWX Technologies Inc pay a dividend?
BWX Technologies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BWX Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BWXT use?
Our models discount BWX Technologies Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BWX Technologies Inc that is +20.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BWX Technologies Inc grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies +20.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BWX Technologies Inc (+20.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.64 %: that much free cash flow BWX Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BWX Technologies Inc it is $44.84 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $121.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BWX Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BWXT trades above its calculated fair value: price $121.50, fair value $44.84, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWXT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($121.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.84). For BWX Technologies Inc the two are $76.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BWX Technologies Inc worth?
The market values BWX Technologies Inc at about $11.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $121.50; our models calculate a fair value of $44.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWXT?
Our models span a range for BWX Technologies Inc: cautious scenario $24.90, base $44.84, optimistic $60.18 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $121.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BWXT?
BWX Technologies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2023 ex one-offs: 23.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 9.1, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 26.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BWXT?
The PEG ratio of BWX Technologies Inc is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Balance-sheet figures for BWX Technologies Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 28.3%, debt of 1.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWXT from its 52-week high?
BWX Technologies Inc trades at $121.50, about 49% below its 52-week high of $238.10 and at the low of $121.50 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BWX Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BWX Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $121.50, calculated fair value $44.84 (−63%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWXT calculated?
We run BWX Technologies Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BWX Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $121.50. Our model-based fair value is $44.84, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BWX Technologies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($24.90 to $60.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) come from?
Earnings per share at BWX Technologies Inc grew +12.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BWX Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The market capitalisation of BWX Technologies Inc is $11.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BWX Technologies Inc is 3.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Earnings per share at BWX Technologies Inc are $4.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The dividend yield of BWX Technologies Inc is 0.9% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The net margin of BWX Technologies Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BWX Technologies Inc is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BWX Technologies Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
The operating margin of BWX Technologies Inc is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Revenue at BWX Technologies Inc is growing +18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)?
Earnings per share at BWX Technologies Inc are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT) carry?
The net debt of BWX Technologies Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026