Cairn Homes plc (C5H) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · IE · Market cap €1.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €3.63 to €3.61 (−0.6%) since Jul 15, 2026.
A solid business, screening 57% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€1.75 to €4.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.7867 – €2.41 · fair‑value band €1.75 – €4.52 · the €2.30 price screens below the €3.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Cairn Homes plc (C5H) currently trades at €2.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.61, implying the stock looks roughly 57.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cairn Homes plc generated revenue of €945M at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.6%. Net debt stands at €171M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1.75 (bear case) to €4.52 (bull case); at €2.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 57%, C5H screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€7.62) versus Asset-Based (€0.9000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cairn Homes plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as homebuilder in Ireland. The company builds, develops, and sells residential properties, including houses, duplexes, and apartments, as well as commercial and retail spaces. It also engages in property holding and rental; and financing activities.
Full company description
Cairn Homes plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as homebuilder in Ireland. The company builds, develops, and sells residential properties, including houses, duplexes, and apartments, as well as commercial and retail spaces. It also engages in property holding and rental; and financing activities. Cairn Homes plc was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cairn Homes plc reported revenue of €945M in FY2025 versus €424M in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was €133M in FY2025, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.82 | $213.23 | +46% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $129.16 | $190.17 | +47% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.20 | $143.01 | +68% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,294 | $7,821 | +24% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $148.53 | $221.32 | +49% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $242.95 | $209.51 | -14% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $72.89 | $102.94 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | -20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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