CAE Inc. (CAE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of CAE Inc. $14.57, price $24.41, upside -40.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.33 – $34.05 · fair‑value band $10.93 – $18.22 · the $24.41 price screens above the $14.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security.
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CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides training, simulation, and critical operation solutions in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, the Oceania, Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Civil Aviation; and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, ground personnel, and air traffic controllers in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; a range of flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as airline operations digital solutions. The Defense and Security segment operates as a training and simulation provider that delivers scalable and platform-independent solutions to enable and enhance force readiness and security for defense forces, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), government agencies, and public safety organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.
Stock analysis
CAE Inc. (CAE) currently trades at $24.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.57, implying the stock looks roughly 67.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $27.48 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $24.41 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.41, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.93 (bear) to $18.22 (bull), the price of $24.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CAE Inc. reported revenue of C$4.9B in FY2026 versus C$3.4B in FY2022, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$314M in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B · P/E ratio 35.9 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −40%, CAE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.93Fair Value $14.57Bull $18.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3298 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 13%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.5% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−40% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF13.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)20· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CAE Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAE
Frequently asked questions
Is CAE Inc. (CAE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.57 versus a price of $24.41, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAE?
Our model-based fair value for CAE Inc. is $14.57 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.41.
What is the quality score of CAE?
CAE Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.57 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.93, optimistic scenario $18.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CAE Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.57, about −40% upside versus a price of $24.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.93, optimistic scenario $18.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
CAE Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CAE Inc. (CAE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CAE Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAE use?
Our models discount CAE Inc. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CAE Inc. that is +11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CAE Inc. (CAE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CAE Inc. grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies +11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CAE Inc. (CAE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CAE Inc. (+11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.28 %: that much free cash flow CAE Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CAE Inc. it is $14.57 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.41. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CAE Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CAE trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.41, fair value $14.57, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.57). For CAE Inc. the two are $9.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CAE Inc. worth?
The market values CAE Inc. at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.41; our models calculate a fair value of $14.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAE?
Our models span a range for CAE Inc.: cautious scenario $10.93, base $14.57, optimistic $18.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAE?
CAE Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CAE?
The PEG ratio of CAE Inc. is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Balance-sheet figures for CAE Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAE from its 52-week high?
CAE Inc. trades at $24.41, about 28% below its 52-week high of $34.05 and 5% above the low of $23.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CAE Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CAE Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.41, calculated fair value $14.57 (−40%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAE calculated?
We run CAE Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CAE Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.41. Our model-based fair value is $14.57, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CAE Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of CAE Inc. (CAE) come from?
Earnings per share at CAE Inc. grew +3.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CAE Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The market capitalisation of CAE Inc. is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CAE Inc. is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Earnings per share at CAE Inc. are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The net margin of CAE Inc. is 6.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CAE Inc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CAE Inc. is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CAE Inc. (CAE)?
The operating margin of CAE Inc. is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Revenue at CAE Inc. is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CAE Inc. (CAE)?
Earnings per share at CAE Inc. are growing −48.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CAE Inc. (CAE) carry?
The net debt of CAE Inc. is C$2.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026