CarGurus, Inc (CARG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.1B
CarGurus, Inc
CARG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $35.18 to $27.62 (−21.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +14.0% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 100/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.72 to $40.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.93 – $48.45 · fair‑value band $20.72 – $40.99 · the $38.99 price screens above the $27.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
CarGurus, Inc (CARG) currently trades at $38.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.62, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 100/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CarGurus, Inc generated revenue of $938M at a net margin of 15.9%. Revenue grew 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 58.5%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.8. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.72 (bear case) to $40.99 (bull case); at $38.99, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -29%, CARG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($57.60) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 96 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive platform for buying and selling vehicles in the United States and internationally. The company offers dealer subscription fees, advertising from auto manufacturers and other brand advertisers, and partnerships with financing services companies.
Full company description
CarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive platform for buying and selling vehicles in the United States and internationally. The company offers dealer subscription fees, advertising from auto manufacturers and other brand advertisers, and partnerships with financing services companies. It provides an online automotive marketplace that connects large audience of car shoppers with extensive network of dealers, anchoring integrated suite of products. It also offers Digital Deal which allows consumers the option to start their vehicle purchase process online for eligible listings; Dealership Mode which provides consumers with on-the-lot support during visits to participating dealers through the CarGurus app; Sell My Car " Top Dealer Offers which allows dealers to make tailored trade-in offers; and IMV Scan enables dealers to scan a VIN using their smartphone to access IMV data; and PriceVantage, an advanced pricing software powered by machine learning that leverages real-time consumer demand. In addition, the company provides auto manufacturers and others advertiser products, such as brand reinforcement, category sponsorship, automobile segment exclusivity, and consumer segment exposure; Autolist, an online automotive marketplace through mobile applications and a website; and PistonHeads which is an automotive marketplace, auction platform, and editorial site for automotive enthusiasts. The company was formerly known as CarGurus LLC and changed its name to CarGurus, Inc. in June 2015. CarGurus, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CarGurus, Inc reported revenue of $939M in FY2025 versus $951M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $156M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
CARG screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CarGurus (CARG) Adds Price Transparency Tools, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
- CarGurus To Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- CarGurus Brings a New Level of Transparency to Car Shopping with Enhanced Site Features
- Etsy and CarGurus Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 54/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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