Carmila SA (CARM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Carmila SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Real Estate · FR · Market cap €2.1B · ISIN FR0010828137
At a glance
CSCarmila SACARM · PA
Price€15.12
Fair Value€22.78
Upside+50.7%
Quality66/100
A solid business, trading 34% below our fair value of €22.78.
As of Aug 23, 2026, the fair value of Carmila SA is €22.78 per share against a price of €15.12, so the fair value sits 51% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Weak on past: 22 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €17.08 to €28.48
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price −10.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.68 – €17.15 · fair‑value band €17.08 – €28.48 · the €15.12 price screens below the €22.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Carmila SA (CARM) currently trades at €15.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.78, implying the stock looks roughly 33.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €34.74 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the €15.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €16.44, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carmila SA generated revenue of €566M at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at €2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Scenario range: €17.08 (bear) to €28.48 (bull), the price of €15.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 51%, CARM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.9150 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence€18.98€19.50€19.0874
Growth DCF€5.70€26.71€60.5767
FCF DCF€7.20€20.57€62.2566
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€7.20€20.57€62.2566
5Y Revenue Exit€5.60€23.29€60.3961
5Y EBITDA Exit€12.74€37.72€86.7865
10Y Revenue Exit€5.55€34.74€53.8261
10Y EBITDA Exit€11.53€49.76€117.2558
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€11.17€22.26€33.7164
DDM Multi-Stage€11.17€19.24€23.5065
Multiples
P/S Multiple€17.09€22.78€28.4858
P/B Multiple€17.09€22.78€28.4855
EV/EBIT€22.81€36.27€49.7364
EV/EBITDA€13.89€24.38€34.8665
EV/Revenue€2.77€11.49€20.2048
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€12.27€16.44€24.5354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€5.70€26.71€60.5767
Rev-Margin DCF€8.06€29.16€73.2361
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence€18.98€19.50€19.0874
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€34.74) versus Asset-Based (€16.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio11.5
P/S ratio3.70P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€1.32price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5
Dividend yield7.6%payout 87.1%
Net margin32.3%FY2025
Return on equity5.5%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.2%avg 5y
Operating margin64.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)€566MTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−1.4%3y avg +6.7%
EPS growth (YoY)−72.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€216MFY2025
Net debt€2.6BFY2025 · ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality66/100
Of which business quality 62
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance92
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life.
Full company description
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life. Anchored by Carrefour hypermarkets, these centres act as catalysts for local commerce by integrating shopping, healthcare services, events, dining and leisure. Carmila is listed on Euronext Paris, Compartment A, under the ticker symbol CARM and benefits from the French listed real estate investment trust regime. The Group is a member of SBF 120 and CAC Mid 60 indices. Carmila S.A. was established on March 6, 1991 and incorporated in France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carmila SA reported revenue of €574M in FY2025 versus €444M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was €185M in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€574M
Latest YoY
+13.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+4.5%
Dividend yield7.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.5% vs 10Y −3.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48.8% (2020) → 59.0% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop193% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
Revenue+6.6%/yr
FY21€444M
FY22€473M
FY23€486M
FY24€507M
FY25€574M
Net income−0.9%/yr
FY21€192M
FY22€219M
FY23€2.8M
FY24€314M
FY25€185M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)−5.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share+8.2 %
of which total revenue +20.6 % · buybacks/dilution −10.3 %
EBIT margin−4.4 %
Tax rate+0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−9.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+46% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)33% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)64% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.75× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)4.73× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF12.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA14.7× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Carmila SA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 17
FUTURE0· sector 22
PAST22· sector 30
HEALTH62· sector 67
DIVIDEND100· sector 100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
As of Aug 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.78 versus a price of €15.12, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CARM?
Our model-based fair value for Carmila SA is €22.78 (as of Aug 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.12.
What is the quality score of CARM?
Carmila SA has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carmila SA (CARM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.78 (as of Aug 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.08, optimistic scenario €28.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carmila SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.78, about +51% upside versus a price of €15.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €17.08, optimistic scenario €28.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carmila SA (CARM)?
Carmila SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €566M (latest available figure, as of Aug 23, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CARM?
The net profit margin of Carmila SA is about 32.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Carmila SA pay a dividend?
Carmila SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.60% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carmila SA (CARM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carmila SA would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Aug 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CARM use?
Our models discount Carmila SA at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Carmila SA (CARM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carmila SA it is €22.78 per share (as of Aug 23, 2026), against a price of €15.12. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carmila SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 23, 2026, CARM trades below its calculated fair value: price €15.12, fair value €22.78, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.78). For Carmila SA the two are €7.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carmila SA worth?
The market values Carmila SA at about €2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 23, 2026). Per share that is €15.12; our models calculate a fair value of €22.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARM?
Our models span a range for Carmila SA: cautious scenario €17.08, base €22.78, optimistic €28.48 per share (as of Aug 23, 2026, price €15.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CARM?
Carmila SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Aug 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carmila SA (CARM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carmila SA (as of Aug 23, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARM from its 52-week high?
Carmila SA trades at €15.12, about 13% below its 52-week high of €17.31 and 5% above the low of €14.45 (as of Aug 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carmila SA?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carmila SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 23, 2026: price €15.12, calculated fair value €22.78 (+51%), Quality Score 66/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARM calculated?
We run Carmila SA through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €22.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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