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Carmila S.A (CARM) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · FR · Market cap €2.3B

CS Carmila S.A CARM · PA
Price€16.92
Fair Value€22.78
Upside+34.6%
Quality66/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 32.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range €17.09 – €28.48 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from €22.71 to €22.78 (+0.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 35% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€17.15 €7.68 Fair Value €22.78 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.68 – €17.15 · fair‑value band €17.09 – €28.48 · the €16.92 price screens below the €22.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Carmila S.A (CARM) currently trades at €16.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.78, implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Carmila S.A generated revenue of €566M at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at €2.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €17.09 (bear case) to €28.48 (bull case); at €16.92, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at 35%, CARM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €5.70 €26.71 €60.57 80
Residual Income €18.98 €19.50 €19.08 76
Rev-Margin DCF €8.06 €29.16 €73.23 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €7.20 €20.57 €62.25 38
5Y Revenue Exit €5.60 €23.29 €60.39 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €12.74 €37.72 €86.78 41
10Y Revenue Exit €5.55 €34.74 €53.82 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €11.53 €49.76 €117.25 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €11.17 €22.26 €33.71 70
DDM Multi-Stage €11.17 €19.24 €23.50 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple €17.09 €22.78 €28.48 58
P/B Multiple €17.09 €22.78 €28.48 55
EV/EBIT €22.81 €36.27 €49.73 53
EV/EBITDA €13.89 €24.38 €34.86 54
EV/Revenue €2.77 €11.49 €20.20 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €12.27 €16.44 €24.53 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €5.70 €26.71 €60.57 80
Rev-Margin DCF €8.06 €29.16 €73.23 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €18.98 €19.50 €19.08 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€34.74) versus Asset-Based (€16.44). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €566M
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.4%
Net margin 32.7%
Return on equity 5.5%
Free cash flow €216M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.6
More key figures
Operating margin 64.3%
EPS (TTM) €1.32
EPS growth (YoY) -72.2%
Net debt €2.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life.

Full company description

Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life. Anchored by Carrefour hypermarkets, these centres act as catalysts for local commerce by integrating shopping, healthcare services, events, dining and leisure. Carmila is listed on Euronext Paris, Compartment A, under the ticker symbol CARM and benefits from the French listed real estate investment trust regime. The Group is a member of SBF 120 and CAC Mid 60 indices. Carmila S.A. was established on March 6, 1991 and incorporated in France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Carmila S.A reported revenue of €574M in FY2025 versus €444M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was €185M in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€574M
Latest YoY
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.5%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+12.5%
Revenue +6.6%/yr
FY21 €444M
FY22 €473M
FY23 €486M
FY24 €507M
FY25 €574M
Net income −0.9%/yr
FY21 €192M
FY22 €219M
FY23 €2.8M
FY24 €314M
FY25 €185M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carmila S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARM

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

REIT - Retail · 107 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +35% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 33% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 64% · Above median
Revenue growth -1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.75× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 12.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 79 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 22
PAST 22 · sector 30
HEALTH 62 · sector 66
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Carmila S.A (CARM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.78 versus a price of €16.92, about +35% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CARM?
Our model-based fair value for Carmila S.A is €22.78 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €16.92.
What is the quality score of CARM?
Carmila S.A has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Carmila S.A (CARM)?
Carmila S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €566M (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CARM?
The net profit margin of Carmila S.A is about 32.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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