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Carabao Group (CBG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 52.5B THB

CG Carabao Group CBG · BK
Price51.25 THB
Fair Value48.71 THB
Upside-5.0%
Quality68/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.42% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Moderate moat 60/100
Evidence: High Range 35.84 THB – 60.89 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +9.0% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 35.84 THB (bear) to 60.89 THB (bull), base 48.71 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 68/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

141.13 THB 34.25 THB Fair Value 48.71 THB Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 34.25 THB – 141.13 THB · fair‑value band 35.84 THB – 60.89 THB · the 51.25 THB price screens above the 48.71 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Carabao Group (CBG) currently trades at 51.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 48.71 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Carabao Group generated revenue of 20.4B THB at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at 1.0B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 35.84 THB (bear case) to 60.89 THB (bull case); at 51.25 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -5%, CBG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 33.02 THB 55.12 THB 91.54 THB 80
Residual Income 15.18 THB 19.05 THB 45.45 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 26.76 THB 43.60 THB 64.72 THB 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 33.02 THB 56.44 THB 95.70 THB 38
Owner Earnings 26.44 THB 45.04 THB 76.22 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 26.76 THB 43.79 THB 66.31 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 37.04 THB 64.41 THB 98.09 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 33.95 THB 58.21 THB 85.27 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 27.87 THB 44.54 THB 68.83 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 35.37 THB 59.41 THB 94.73 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 33.35 THB 54.94 THB 84.29 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 15.77 THB 66.18 THB 90.28 THB 54
Lynch FV 16.79 THB 23.98 THB 31.18 THB 50
PEG = 1.0 16.79 THB 23.98 THB 31.18 THB 46
EPV 27.19 THB 31.54 THB 35.35 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 12.85 THB 26.73 THB 42.40 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 12.85 THB 22.54 THB 28.05 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 36.53 THB 48.71 THB 60.89 THB 63
P/S Multiple 26.45 THB 35.27 THB 44.08 THB 58
P/B Multiple 29.57 THB 39.43 THB 49.29 THB 55
EV/EBIT 45.42 THB 60.21 THB 75.00 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 42.64 THB 56.50 THB 70.36 THB 54
EV/Revenue 24.21 THB 34.13 THB 44.05 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7.05 THB 9.45 THB 14.10 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 33.02 THB 55.12 THB 91.54 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 26.76 THB 43.60 THB 64.72 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.18 THB 19.05 THB 45.45 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 30.34 THB 39.90 THB 52.06 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 28.55 THB 40.78 THB 53.02 THB 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (54.94 THB) versus Asset-Based (9.45 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 20.4B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.1%
Net margin 10.7%
Return on equity 14.8%
Free cash flow 2.6B THB FY2025
P/E ratio 18.5
More key figures
Operating margin 15.2%
EPS (TTM) 2.17 THB
Dividend yield 3.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -19.6%
Net debt 1.0B THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Carabao Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beverages in Thailand and internationally.

Full company description

Carabao Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beverages in Thailand and internationally. The company's products primarily include carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks, vitamin C drinks, sport drinks, coffee products, and drinking water under the Carabao, Carabao Sport, and Woody C+ Lock brands. It also manufactures and distributes bottles, glass products, aluminum cans, and packaging products. In addition, the company is involved in the investment, data and distribution management, and trading activities. Carabao Group Public Company Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Carabao Group reported revenue of 22.0B THB in FY2025 versus 17.4B THB in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B THB in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
22.0B THB
Latest YoY
+5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y)
+14.2%
Revenue +6.1%/yr
FY21 17.4B THB
FY22 19.2B THB
FY23 18.9B THB
FY24 21.0B THB
FY25 22.0B THB
Net income −5.3%/yr
FY21 2.9B THB
FY22 2.3B THB
FY23 1.9B THB
FY24 2.8B THB
FY25 2.3B THB

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carabao Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CBG

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 91 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth -0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.72× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.58× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 10.64× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 27 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 46
PAST 59 · sector 49
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 48 · sector 47

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $87.05 $36.57 -58%
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $139.02 $106.91 -23%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $97.50 $35.82 -63%
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$41.44 HK$30.72 -26%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €92.10 €85.41 -7%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $31.25 $30.99 -1%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF $102.04 $106.45 +4%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €57.90 €52.82 -9%
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹495.70 ₹187.49 -62%
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥124.43 ¥107.57 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Carabao Group (CBG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 48.71 THB versus a price of 51.25 THB, about −5% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CBG?
Our model-based fair value for Carabao Group is 48.71 THB (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 51.25 THB.
What is the quality score of CBG?
Carabao Group has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Carabao Group (CBG)?
Carabao Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.4B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CBG?
The net profit margin of Carabao Group is about 10.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Carabao Group pay a dividend?
Carabao Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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