Carabao Group (CBG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 52.5B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +9.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from 35.84 THB (bear) to 60.89 THB (bull), base 48.71 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 68/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 34.25 THB – 141.13 THB · fair‑value band 35.84 THB – 60.89 THB · the 51.25 THB price screens above the 48.71 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Carabao Group (CBG) currently trades at 51.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 48.71 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carabao Group generated revenue of 20.4B THB at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at 1.0B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 35.84 THB (bear case) to 60.89 THB (bull case); at 51.25 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -5%, CBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (54.94 THB) versus Asset-Based (9.45 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carabao Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beverages in Thailand and internationally.
Full company description
Carabao Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beverages in Thailand and internationally. The company's products primarily include carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks, vitamin C drinks, sport drinks, coffee products, and drinking water under the Carabao, Carabao Sport, and Woody C+ Lock brands. It also manufactures and distributes bottles, glass products, aluminum cans, and packaging products. In addition, the company is involved in the investment, data and distribution management, and trading activities. Carabao Group Public Company Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carabao Group reported revenue of 22.0B THB in FY2025 versus 17.4B THB in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B THB in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $87.05 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.02 | $106.91 | -23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $97.50 | $35.82 | -63% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$41.44 | HK$30.72 | -26% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €85.41 | -7% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $31.25 | $30.99 | -1% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $102.04 | $106.45 | +4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €57.90 | €52.82 | -9% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹495.70 | ₹187.49 | -62% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥124.43 | ¥107.57 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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