Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc (CBRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $981M
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc
CBRL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +19.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.77 to $34.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.64 – $136.19 · fair‑value band $16.77 – $34.14 · the $57.79 price screens above the $22.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc (CBRL) currently trades at $57.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.07, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.77 (bear case) to $34.14 (bull case); at $57.79, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -62%, CBRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($37.53) versus Economic Profit ($6.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop. The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.
Full company description
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop. The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. Its gift shops offer various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, food, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $46.4M in FY2025, compounding −34.7%/yr from FY2021.
CBRL screens 62% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) Stock Outpacing Its Retail-Wholesale Peers This Year?
- Cracker Barrel CEO Julie Masino Steps Down Nearly a Year After 'Woke' Logo Backlash That Left Her Feeling 'Fired By America'— Former Yum! Ex
- Cracker Barrel CEO erased the 'Old Timer' and cost the chain nearly $100M. Now she's out — with a $4.6M exit package
- New CEO inherits Cracker Barrel still recovering from rebrand backlash
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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