Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store stock $24.09, price $64.81, that is 62.8% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.43 – $121.83 · fair‑value band $22.55 – $36.81 · the $64.81 price screens above the $24.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. Its Cracker Barrel stores consist of restaurants with a gift shop.
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The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.
Its gift shops offer various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, food, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) currently trades at $64.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.09, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $37.81 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the $64.81 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.95, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.55 (bear) to $36.81 (bull), the price of $64.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2026 versus $3.3B in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $31.7M in FY2026, compounding −30.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B Small · P/E ratio 46.3 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) $1.40 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −63%, CBRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.55Fair Value $24.09Bull$36.81
Price $64.81 · Downside -62.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1107 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $182,280 and none bought.
SaleDonna RobertsSVP, Chief HR Officer3,500 shares at $52.08$182,280Oct 1, 2026
SaleBAY RESOURCE PARTNERS OFFSHORE MASTER FUND, L.P.10% owner2× since Dec 16, 2025: 127,200 shares, avg. $26.69$3.4MJan 5, 2026
SaleThomas E Claugus10% owner42,400 shares at $25.56$1.1MDec 29, 2025
SaleBAY II RESOURCE PARTNERS LP10% owner2× since Dec 8, 2025: 127,200 shares, avg. $26.84$3.4MDec 23, 2025
SaleBAY RESOURCE PARTNERS LP10% owner3× since Dec 2, 2025: 254,300 shares, avg. $27.89$7.1MDec 19, 2025
SaleGMT CAPITAL CORP10% owner84,800 shares at $27.46$2.3MDec 11, 2025
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29.8% vs −15.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 0%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.9% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Cracker Barrel Old Country Store with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−62.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)46.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.07× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.44× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.56× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CBRL
Frequently asked questions
Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.09 versus a price of $64.81, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CBRL?
Our model-based fair value for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is $24.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.81.
What is the quality score of CBRL?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.55, optimistic scenario $36.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.09, about 63% lower versus a price of $64.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.55, optimistic scenario $36.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Cracker Barrel Old Country Store pay a dividend?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store currently shows a dividend yield of 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store pays a dividend of $1.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 125% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 71.4%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.07 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store would have to grow free cash flow by +15.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CBRL use?
Our models discount Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cracker Barrel Old Country Store that is +15.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (+15.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.19 %: that much free cash flow Cracker Barrel Old Country Store produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cracker Barrel Old Country Store it is $24.09 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $64.81. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, CBRL trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.81, fair value $24.09, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBRL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.09). For Cracker Barrel Old Country Store the two are $40.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store worth?
The market values Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $64.81; our models calculate a fair value of $24.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBRL?
Our models span a range for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store: cautious scenario $22.55, base $24.09, optimistic $36.81 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $64.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBRL?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.09 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 81.0 (reported 46.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 18.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 3.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CBRL?
The PEG ratio of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBRL from its 52-week high?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store trades at $64.81, about 11% below its 52-week high of $72.45 and 165% above the low of $24.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cracker Barrel Old Country Store?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $64.81, calculated fair value $24.09 (−63%), Quality Score 50/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBRL calculated?
We run Cracker Barrel Old Country Store through 21 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $24.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $64.81. Our model-based fair value is $24.09, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cracker Barrel Old Country Store right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($36.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
How large is the market capitalisation of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The market capitalisation of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Earnings per share at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store are $1.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The dividend yield of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 1.5% (payout 125%, on adjusted earnings, reported 71.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The net margin of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
The operating margin of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Revenue at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)?
Earnings per share at Cracker Barrel Old Country Store are growing +85.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) carry?
The net debt of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is $1,000M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 11.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026