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China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what China Hongqiao Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 13, 2026
Some data
Sep 13, 2026
China Hongqiao Group
CHHQY · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $64.26 · Strongly undervalued (+109%)
!Quality 60/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·4.82% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $5.90 – $49.27 · fair‑value band $44.98 – $83.54 · the $30.76 price screens below the $64.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally.
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China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company's products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum deep processing products, and alumina products; and aluminum fabrication products, aluminum alloy products, steam, and aluminum foils. It is also involved in the development and production of decorative foil, household foil, heat-sealed foil, candy foil, food foil, double zero foil, and other products. In addition, the company engages in research, development, mining, and sale of bauxite; financial leasing; and production and sale of electricity. China Hongqiao Group Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China. China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) currently trades at $30.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.26, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $558.59 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $30.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $90.53, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $44.98 (bear) to $83.54 (bull), the price of $30.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Hongqiao Group reported revenue of 158B CNY in FY2025 versus 114B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was 22.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $35.8B · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) $3.52 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 109%, CHHQY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $44.98
Fair Value $64.26
Bull $83.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.43 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$399.92
$761.29
$1,456
76
Growth DCF
$392.26
$718.03
$1,296
75
EPV
$263.89
$306.14
$343.11
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$399.92
$761.29
$1,456
76
Owner Earnings
$260.84
$498.90
$939.82
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$247.94
$411.04
$632.50
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$338.11
$605.75
$950.46
73
5Y P/E Exit
$316.27
$558.59
$843.99
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$288.36
$465.38
$740.92
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$355.44
$611.93
$1,019
66
10Y P/E Exit
$340.68
$576.43
$926.20
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$152.49
$822.67
$1,140
63
Lynch FV
$227.76
$325.38
$422.99
61
PEG = 1.0
$227.76
$325.38
$422.99
57
EPV
$263.89
$306.14
$343.11
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$103.81
$215.84
$342.40
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$103.81
$182.00
$226.53
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$285.91
$381.21
$476.52
63
P/S Multiple
$180.94
$241.25
$301.57
58
P/B Multiple
$285.91
$381.21
$476.52
55
EV/EBIT
$382.37
$506.38
$630.38
66
EV/EBITDA
$329.82
$436.31
$542.79
67
EV/Revenue
$179.23
$251.61
$323.98
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$67.56
$90.53
$135.12
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$392.26
$718.03
$1,296
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$247.94
$408.52
$626.60
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$146.97
$187.10
$489.67
68
ROIC Compounder
$306.79
$419.54
$569.43
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$301.71
$431.01
$560.31
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 22%
2025 sits 98% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.16 | ¥43.52 | +140% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹981.90 | ₹997.35 | +2% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥9.44 | ¥16.30 | +73% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 87.54 | kr 58.10 | −34% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.76 MYR | 8.54 MYR | +10% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥27.29 | ¥38.55 | +41% |
| Alcoa Corporation AA | $48.26 | $38.04 | −21% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥27.15 | ¥32.01 | +18% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥13.22 | ¥35.04 | +165% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.82 | ¥7.57 | +57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.26 versus a price of $30.76, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHHQY?
Our model-based fair value for China Hongqiao Group is $64.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.76.
What is the quality score of CHHQY?
China Hongqiao Group has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.26 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.98, optimistic scenario $83.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Hongqiao Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.26, about +109% upside versus a price of $30.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $44.98, optimistic scenario $83.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
China Hongqiao Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $162B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does China Hongqiao Group pay a dividend?
China Hongqiao Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Hongqiao Group it is $64.26 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $30.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Hongqiao Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CHHQY trades below its calculated fair value: price $30.76, fair value $64.26, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHHQY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.26). For China Hongqiao Group the two are $33.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Hongqiao Group worth?
The market values China Hongqiao Group at about $35.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $30.76; our models calculate a fair value of $64.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHHQY?
Our models span a range for China Hongqiao Group: cautious scenario $44.98, base $64.26, optimistic $83.54 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $30.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHHQY?
China Hongqiao Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.26 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Hongqiao Group (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHHQY from its 52-week high?
China Hongqiao Group trades at $30.76, about 38% below its 52-week high of $49.59 and 97% above the low of $15.63 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Hongqiao Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Hongqiao Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $30.76, calculated fair value $64.26 (+109%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHHQY calculated?
We run China Hongqiao Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. China Hongqiao Group currently trades 109 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with China Hongqiao Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($44.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($44.98 to $83.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Hongqiao Group grew +10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −1.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Hongqiao Group
How large is the market capitalisation of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The market capitalisation of China Hongqiao Group is $35.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Hongqiao Group is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Earnings per share at China Hongqiao Group are $3.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The dividend yield of China Hongqiao Group is 4.8% (payout 42.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The net margin of China Hongqiao Group is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Hongqiao Group is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Hongqiao Group is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
The operating margin of China Hongqiao Group is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Revenue at China Hongqiao Group is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY)?
Earnings per share at China Hongqiao Group are growing −23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) generate?
The free cash flow of China Hongqiao Group is $27.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Hongqiao Group (CHHQY) carry?
The net debt of China Hongqiao Group is $18.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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