Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Champion Iron Ltd stock C$2.32, price C$1.87, upside +24.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.87 – C$6.91 · fair‑value band C$1.39 – C$4.04 · the C$1.87 price screens below the C$2.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Champion Iron Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of iron ore properties in Canada. Its flagship project includes the Bloom Lake Mine located in south end of the Labrador. The company is headquartered in Rozelle, Australia.
Stock analysis
Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) currently trades at C$1.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.32, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$5.12 per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$1.87 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$0.4400, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$1.39 (bear) to C$4.04 (bull), the price of C$1.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Champion Iron Ltd reported revenue of C$1.8B in FY2026 versus C$1.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$169M in FY2026, compounding −24.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$997M (≈ $713M) Small · P/E ratio 187.0 · P/S ratio 17.8 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0100 · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity −0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.1% · Operating margin −14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 24%, CIA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$1.39Fair Value C$2.32BullC$4.04
Price C$1.87 · Upside +24.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +127.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+124.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60% → 17%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+24.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−0.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−14.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−18.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Champion Iron Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIA.TO
Frequently asked questions
Is Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.32 versus a price of C$1.87, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CIA?
Our model-based fair value for Champion Iron Ltd is C$2.32 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.87.
What is the quality score of CIA?
Champion Iron Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.32 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1.39, optimistic scenario C$4.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Champion Iron Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.32, about +24% upside versus a price of C$1.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$1.39, optimistic scenario C$4.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Champion Iron Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Champion Iron Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +35.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CIA use?
Our models discount Champion Iron Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Champion Iron Ltd that is +35.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Champion Iron Ltd grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +35.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Champion Iron Ltd (+35.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.21 %: that much free cash flow Champion Iron Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Champion Iron Ltd it is C$2.32 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of C$1.87. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Champion Iron Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, CIA trades below its calculated fair value: price C$1.87, fair value C$2.32, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.32). For Champion Iron Ltd the two are C$0.4529 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Champion Iron Ltd worth?
The market values Champion Iron Ltd at about C$997M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is C$1.87; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIA?
Our models span a range for Champion Iron Ltd: cautious scenario C$1.39, base C$2.32, optimistic C$4.04 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price C$1.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIA?
Champion Iron Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 187.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$2.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Champion Iron Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −0.1%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIA from its 52-week high?
Champion Iron Ltd trades at C$1.87, about 69% below its 52-week high of C$6.06 and at the low of C$1.87 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Champion Iron Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Champion Iron Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price C$1.87, calculated fair value C$2.32 (+24%), Quality Score 45/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIA calculated?
We run Champion Iron Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Champion Iron Ltd currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was C$1.87. Our model-based fair value is C$2.32, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Champion Iron Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$1.39 to C$4.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Champion Iron Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The market capitalisation of Champion Iron Ltd is C$997M (≈ $713M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Champion Iron Ltd is 17.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Earnings per share at Champion Iron Ltd are C$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 187.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The net margin of Champion Iron Ltd is −0.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Champion Iron Ltd is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Champion Iron Ltd is 19.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
The operating margin of Champion Iron Ltd is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Revenue at Champion Iron Ltd is growing −18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Champion Iron Ltd (CIA)?
Earnings per share at Champion Iron Ltd are growing −42.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Champion Iron Ltd (CIA) carry?
The net debt of Champion Iron Ltd is C$784M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 35.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026