Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Calumet Specialty Products Partners $5.68, price $54.38, upside -89.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $5.68 · Strongly overvalued (−90%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/9)
!Narrow moat9/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.74 – $59.05 · fair‑value band $5.68 – $7.93 · the $54.38 price screens above the $5.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments.
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Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments. The Specialty Products and Solutions segment manufactures and markets various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The Montana/Renewables segment processes geographically advantaged renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, aviation fuel, and renewable naphtha. This segment also engages in the process of Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. The Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. It serves wholesale distributors and retail chains. Calumet, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) currently trades at $54.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.68, implying the stock looks roughly 856.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $20.15 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $54.38 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.95, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.68 (bear) to $7.93 (bull), the price of $54.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Calumet Specialty Products Partners reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $−2.16 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −1,172% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin −27.8% · Revenue (TTM) $4.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 208% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −90%, CLMT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1900 to $21.77). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $5.68Fair Value $5.68Bull $7.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.2% (2020) → 1.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.3% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 714 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−28% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF83.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.65× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.68 versus a price of $54.38, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CLMT?
Our model-based fair value for Calumet Specialty Products Partners is $5.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $54.38.
What is the quality score of CLMT?
Calumet Specialty Products Partners has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $7.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calumet Specialty Products Partners stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.68, about −90% upside versus a price of $54.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $7.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Calumet Specialty Products Partners reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calumet Specialty Products Partners would have to grow free cash flow by +42.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CLMT use?
Our models discount Calumet Specialty Products Partners at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Calumet Specialty Products Partners that is +42.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Calumet Specialty Products Partners grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +42.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Calumet Specialty Products Partners (+42.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.20 %: that much free cash flow Calumet Specialty Products Partners produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calumet Specialty Products Partners it is $5.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $54.38. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Calumet Specialty Products Partners stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CLMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $54.38, fair value $5.68, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CLMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($54.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.68). For Calumet Specialty Products Partners the two are $48.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calumet Specialty Products Partners worth?
The market values Calumet Specialty Products Partners at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $54.38; our models calculate a fair value of $5.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CLMT?
Our models span a range for Calumet Specialty Products Partners: cautious scenario $5.68, base $5.68, optimistic $7.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $54.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CLMT?
The PEG ratio of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is 0.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calumet Specialty Products Partners (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CLMT from its 52-week high?
Calumet Specialty Products Partners trades at $54.38, about 8% below its 52-week high of $59.05 and 208% above the low of $17.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calumet Specialty Products Partners?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calumet Specialty Products Partners stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $54.38, calculated fair value $5.68 (−90%), Quality Score 40/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CLMT calculated?
We run Calumet Specialty Products Partners through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Calumet Specialty Products Partners itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $54.38. Our model-based fair value is $5.68, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Calumet Specialty Products Partners right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Calumet Specialty Products Partners
How large is the market capitalisation of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The market capitalisation of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Earnings per share at Calumet Specialty Products Partners are $−2.16. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The net margin of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is −1,172% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
The operating margin of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is −27.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Revenue at Calumet Specialty Products Partners is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT)?
Earnings per share at Calumet Specialty Products Partners are growing +562% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) carry?
The net debt of Calumet Specialty Products Partners is $257M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026