Calumet, Inc (CLMT) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.6B

Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($2.71 to $7.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.50 – $44.19 · fair‑value band $2.71 – $7.57 · the $39.48 price screens above the $5.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Calumet, Inc (CLMT) currently trades at $39.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.14, implying the stock looks roughly 87.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Calumet, Inc generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of -4.5%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $257M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.71 (bear case) to $7.57 (bull case); at $39.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 205% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -87%, CLMT screens richer than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments.

Full company description

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels in North America and internationally. It operates through Specialty Products and Solutions; Performance Brands; and Montana/Renewables segments. The Specialty Products and Solutions segment manufactures and markets various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The Montana/Renewables segment processes geographically advantaged renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, aviation fuel, and renewable naphtha. This segment also engages in the process of Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. The Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. It serves wholesale distributors and retail chains. Calumet, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Calumet, Inc reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.8M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.