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China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Merchants Port Holdings $3.09, price $2.34, upside +32.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
China Merchants Port Holdings
CMHHF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $3.09 · Undervalued (+32.1%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 48.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2124 – $2.34 · fair‑value band $2.65 – $4.02 · the $2.34 price screens below the $3.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments.
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China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ports operation, bonded logistics operation, and property investment in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through Ports Operation, Bonded Logistics Operation, and Other Operations segments. It engages in the container, and bulk and general cargo terminal operation; logistic park operation, ports transportation, and airport cargo handling; and property development and investment, as well as logistics operation activities. The company also provides container related logistics services; financial services; port development, management, and operation services; trading, terminal operation, and repair and maintenance services. In addition, it offers handling and stevedoring container services; loads and unloads goods; operates berths and tugboats; services on ports construction; and holds various pieces of land. The company was formerly known as China Merchants Holdings (International) Company Limited and changed its name to China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited in June 2016. China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) currently trades at $2.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.09, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.89 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $2.34 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.10, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.65 (bear) to $4.02 (bull), the price of $2.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Merchants Port Holdings reported revenue of HK$13.4B in FY2025 versus HK$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$6.5B in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 5.70 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Net margin 48.7% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 37.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 57% fair-value upside, at 32%, CMHHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.65
Fair Value $3.09
Bull $4.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$3.25
$5.21
$8.19
79
Growth DCF
$3.28
$5.17
$8.01
77
Residual Income
$2.61
$2.69
$2.88
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$3.25
$5.21
$8.19
79
Owner Earnings
$3.02
$4.84
$7.61
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.44
$1.90
$2.42
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.37
$3.69
$5.22
75
5Y P/E Exit
$2.93
$4.76
$6.72
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.06
$2.65
$3.37
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.66
$3.89
$5.52
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.01
$4.63
$6.67
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.34
$4.79
$6.46
64
Lynch FV
$1.13
$1.61
$2.10
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.13
$1.61
$2.10
57
EPV
$0.9500
$1.10
$1.24
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9900
$1.98
$2.99
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9900
$1.71
$2.09
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.11
$4.15
$5.18
63
P/S Multiple
$0.6100
$0.8100
$1.01
58
P/B Multiple
$2.52
$3.36
$4.19
55
EV/EBIT
$1.88
$2.52
$3.16
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.11
$2.82
$3.54
67
EV/Revenue
$0.4700
$0.6900
$0.9100
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.68
$2.25
$3.35
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$3.28
$5.17
$8.01
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.33
$1.74
$2.20
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.61
$2.69
$2.88
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.9500
$1.10
$1.24
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.16
$3.09
$4.02
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.3% vs −0.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 37%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.9% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
Watch CMHHF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- China Merchants Port Holdings Co Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- China Merchants Port Holdings (SEHK:144) Gains Momentum, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
- China Merchants Port Holdings (SEHK:144): Exploring Valuation After Recent Share Price Fluctuations
Compare China Merchants Port Holdings with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,738 | ₹1,041 | −40% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥16.37 | ¥40.37 | +147% |
| Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG | €141.20 | €88.00 | −38% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.36 | ¥6.41 | +20% |
| SITC International Holdings 1308 | HK$48.54 | HK$64.78 | +33% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 21,500 KRW | 33,795 KRW | +57% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 115.50 TWD | 191.50 TWD | +66% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.40 | ¥5.58 | +64% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥9.75 | ¥15.59 | +60% |
| The National Shipping Company 4030 | 36.00 SAR | 44.07 SAR | +22% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.09 versus a price of $2.34, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMHHF?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Port Holdings is $3.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.34.
What is the quality score of CMHHF?
China Merchants Port Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $4.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Merchants Port Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.09, about +32% upside versus a price of $2.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $4.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
China Merchants Port Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$13.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Merchants Port Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMHHF use?
Our models discount China Merchants Port Holdings at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Merchants Port Holdings that is -1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Merchants Port Holdings grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies -1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Merchants Port Holdings (-1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.16 %: that much free cash flow China Merchants Port Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Merchants Port Holdings it is $3.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.34. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Merchants Port Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMHHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.34, fair value $3.09, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMHHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.09). For China Merchants Port Holdings the two are $0.7500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Merchants Port Holdings worth?
The market values China Merchants Port Holdings at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.34; our models calculate a fair value of $3.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMHHF?
Our models span a range for China Merchants Port Holdings: cautious scenario $2.65, base $3.09, optimistic $4.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CMHHF from its 52-week high?
China Merchants Port Holdings trades at $2.34, at its 52-week high of $2.34 and 61% above the low of $1.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Merchants Port Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Merchants Port Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.34, calculated fair value $3.09 (+32%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMHHF calculated?
We run China Merchants Port Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Merchants Port Holdings currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.34. Our model-based fair value is $3.09, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Merchants Port Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.65). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Port Holdings grew +0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Merchants Port Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The market capitalisation of China Merchants Port Holdings is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of China Merchants Port Holdings is 11.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Merchants Port Holdings is 5.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Port Holdings are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The net margin of China Merchants Port Holdings is 48.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Merchants Port Holdings is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Merchants Port Holdings is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
The operating margin of China Merchants Port Holdings is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
Revenue at China Merchants Port Holdings is growing +14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF)?
Earnings per share at China Merchants Port Holdings are growing −17.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Merchants Port Holdings (CMHHF) carry?
The net debt of China Merchants Port Holdings is HK$24.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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