CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of CSN Mineração S.A BRL 6.44, price BRL 5.10, upside +26.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.95 – R$6.99 · fair‑value band R$4.83 – R$8.05 · the R$5.10 price screens below the R$6.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CSN Mineração S.A. engages in the iron ore mining business in Brazil, Asia, and Europe. The company operates Casa de Pedra, Engenho, and Pires mines. It also operates a hydroelectric power plant. The company was founded in 1913 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. CSN Mineração S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional.
Stock analysis
CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) currently trades at R$5.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.44, implying the stock looks roughly 20.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$10.32 per share, and 13 of the 17 models we run sit above the R$5.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$0.8200, and 4 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$4.83 (bear) to R$8.05 (bull), the price of R$5.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CSN Mineração S.A reported revenue of R$18.0B in FY2025 versus R$19.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.6B in FY2025, compounding −28.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$27.7B (≈ $5.4B) · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) R$0.4100 · Dividend yield 12.3% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 26%, CMIN3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$4.83Fair Value R$6.44Bull R$8.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +57.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.47% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.6%/yr over ~8Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+22% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)12.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$6.44 versus a price of R$5.10, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMIN3?
Our model-based fair value for CSN Mineração S.A is R$6.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$5.10.
What is the quality score of CMIN3?
CSN Mineração S.A has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$6.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$4.83, optimistic scenario R$8.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CSN Mineração S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$6.44, about +26% upside versus a price of R$5.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$4.83, optimistic scenario R$8.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
CSN Mineração S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$17.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CSN Mineração S.A pay a dividend?
CSN Mineração S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CSN Mineração S.A it is R$6.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$5.10. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CSN Mineração S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMIN3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$5.10, fair value R$6.44, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMIN3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$5.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$6.44). For CSN Mineração S.A the two are R$1.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CSN Mineração S.A worth?
The market values CSN Mineração S.A at about R$27.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$5.10; our models calculate a fair value of R$6.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMIN3?
Our models span a range for CSN Mineração S.A: cautious scenario R$4.83, base R$6.44, optimistic R$8.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$5.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMIN3?
CSN Mineração S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$6.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Balance-sheet figures for CSN Mineração S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMIN3 from its 52-week high?
CSN Mineração S.A trades at R$5.10, about 27% below its 52-week high of R$6.99 and 25% above the low of R$4.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$6.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CSN Mineração S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CSN Mineração S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$5.10, calculated fair value R$6.44 (+26%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMIN3 calculated?
We run CSN Mineração S.A through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$6.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CSN Mineração S.A currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$5.10. Our model-based fair value is R$6.44, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CSN Mineração S.A right now?
Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) come from?
Earnings per share at CSN Mineração S.A grew −4.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin −7.8 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CSN Mineração S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The market capitalisation of CSN Mineração S.A is R$27.7B (≈ $5.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CSN Mineração S.A is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Earnings per share at CSN Mineração S.A are R$0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The dividend yield of CSN Mineração S.A is 12.3% (payout 152%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The net margin of CSN Mineração S.A is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CSN Mineração S.A is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CSN Mineração S.A is 20.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
The operating margin of CSN Mineração S.A is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Revenue at CSN Mineração S.A is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3)?
Earnings per share at CSN Mineração S.A are growing −38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) generate?
The free cash flow of CSN Mineração S.A is −R$471M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CSN Mineração S.A (CMIN3) carry?
The net debt of CSN Mineração S.A is R$449M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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