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Compass Group PLC ADR (CMPGY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $55.6B · ISIN US20449X4016

What is Compass Group PLC ADR really worth?

CG Compass Group PLC ADR logo Compass Group PLC ADR CMPGY · US
Price$30.71
Fair Value$24.18
Upside−21.3%
Quality61/100

A solid business, but trading 27% above our fair value of $24.18.

As of Aug 31, 2026, the fair value of Compass Group PLC ADR is $24.18 per share against a price of $30.71, so the fair value sits 21% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Weak on valuation: 5 out of 100

For context

·2.24% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $17.22 – $30.23

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −7.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$35.53 $17.81 Fair Value $24.18 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.81 – $35.53 · fair‑value band $17.22 – $30.23 · the $30.71 price screens above the $24.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Compass Group PLC ADR (CMPGY) currently trades at $30.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.18, implying the stock looks roughly 27.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $27.73 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $30.71 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.02, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Compass Group PLC ADR generated revenue of $48.5B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 10.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.9%. Net debt stands at $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $17.22 (bear case) to $30.23 (bull case); at $30.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −21%, CMPGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4690 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $18.72 $33.54 $58.08 78
Growth DCF $18.76 $32.89 $55.95 76
Owner Earnings $17.54 $31.54 $54.70 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $18.72 $33.54 $58.08 78
Owner Earnings $17.54 $31.54 $54.70 74
5Y Revenue Exit $15.40 $27.08 $42.46 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $19.14 $34.50 $53.21 74
5Y P/E Exit $15.73 $27.73 $40.92 70
10Y Revenue Exit $15.83 $27.10 $43.38 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.81 $32.43 $52.06 67
10Y P/E Exit $16.58 $27.57 $42.14 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.47 $30.24 $41.15 64
Lynch FV $7.56 $10.79 $14.03 61
PEG = 1.0 $7.56 $10.79 $14.03 57
EPV $11.00 $13.21 $15.14 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.66 $11.77 $18.67 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.66 $9.92 $12.35 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $18.14 $24.18 $30.23 63
P/S Multiple $14.01 $18.69 $23.36 58
P/B Multiple $13.50 $18.00 $22.50 55
EV/EBIT $22.13 $30.25 $38.37 66
EV/EBITDA $21.51 $29.42 $37.34 67
EV/Revenue $14.19 $21.23 $28.27 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.25 $3.02 $4.50 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.76 $32.89 $55.95 76
Rev-Margin DCF $15.40 $26.95 $41.27 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.94 $8.71 $32.44 64
ROIC Compounder $12.52 $17.25 $23.25 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $13.54 $19.34 $25.15 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.73) versus Asset-Based ($3.02). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.8
P/S ratio 1.05 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.19 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.8
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 57.8%
Net margin 4.1% FY2025
Return on equity 26.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $48.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.7% 3y avg +21.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +16.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $2.9B FY2025
Net debt $6.4B FY2025 · ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; insurance brokerage services; and others.

Full company description

Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; insurance brokerage services; and others. It serves business and industry; healthcare and senior living; education; sports and leisure; and defense, offshore, and remote sectors. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Compass Group PLC ADR reported revenue of $46.1B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +51.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$46.1B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+45.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+42.8% · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+40.6%
Dividend yield2.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 40.6% vs 10Y 7.3%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.5% (2020) → 6.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop89% (2020) · in USD
⚠ 2024: reporting currency changed from GBP to USD; growth across this seam is distorted
Revenue +26.7%/yr
FY21 $17.9B
FY22 $25.5B
FY23 $31.1B
FY24 $55.1B
FY25 $46.1B
Net income +51.3%/yr
FY21 $357M
FY22 $1.1B
FY23 $1.6B
FY24 $1.8B
FY25 $1.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +7.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.8 %

of which total revenue +10.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %

EBIT margin −2.6 %
Tax rate −0.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

CMPGY screens 27% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Compass Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMPGY

Peer Group

Restaurants · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.57× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 7.26× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.15× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 15.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.67× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE5 · sector 26
FUTURE54 · sector 18
PAST100 · sector 15
HEALTH71 · sector 97
DIVIDEND45 · sector 68

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $260.06 $149.03 −43%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $107.26 $35.83 −67%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $38.03 $17.92 −53%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $153.31 $58.17 −62%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.50 C$36.37 −65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $218.86 $173.68 −21%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $43.60 $54.27 +24%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $198.99 $104.89 −47%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $51.02 $12.80 −75%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $341.08 $227.31 −33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Compass Group PLC ADR (CMPGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.18 versus a price of $30.71, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMPGY?
Our model-based fair value for Compass Group PLC ADR is $24.18 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.71.
What is the quality score of CMPGY?
Compass Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Compass Group PLC ADR (CMPGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.18 (as of Aug 31, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.22, optimistic scenario $30.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Compass Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.18, about −21% upside versus a price of $30.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.22, optimistic scenario $30.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Compass Group PLC ADR (CMPGY)?
Compass Group PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CMPGY?
The net profit margin of Compass Group PLC ADR is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Compass Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Compass Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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