Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Compass Group PLC stock $24.18, price $32.83, upside -26.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.81 – $35.53 · fair‑value band $18.14 – $30.23 · the $32.83 price screens above the $24.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally.
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The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; insurance brokerage services; and others.
It serves business and industry; healthcare and senior living; education; sports and leisure; and defense, offshore, and remote sectors. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) currently trades at $32.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.18, 26.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.47 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $32.83 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $9.09, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.14 (bear) to $30.23 (bull), the price of $32.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Compass Group PLC ADR reported revenue of $46.1B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +51.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $55.8B Large · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) $1.19 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 26.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −26%, CMPGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.14Fair Value $24.18Bull$30.23
Price $32.83 · Upside -26.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5020 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+42.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.40.6% vs 7.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ 2024: reporting currency changed from GBP to USD; growth across this seam is distorted
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Global scale delivers a moderate moat in contract foodservice while thin margins and limited other signals remain the key constraints on business quality.
Main risk: Persistent margin pressure from competitors threatens to compress the already thin margins in its contract foodservice operations.
Compass Group recently secured a ten-year contract through its SSP subsidiary to operate all food and beverage outlets at Paris Charles de Gaulle Terminal 9, further strengthening its dominant position at the airport. Strong new business momentum and 96 percent client retention point to resilient demand in outsourcing, yet our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the advantages from scale and first-time outsourcing wins continue to outpace margin pressure from competitors?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 206 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.6× · Pricier than median
P/B7.29× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.15× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow19.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.55× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)42· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Compass Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMPGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.18 versus a price of $32.83, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMPGY?
Our model-based fair value for Compass Group PLC ADR is $24.18 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.83.
What is the quality score of CMPGY?
Compass Group PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.18 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $30.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Compass Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.18, about −26% upside versus a price of $32.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $30.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Compass Group PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Compass Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Compass Group PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Compass Group PLC ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMPGY use?
Our models discount Compass Group PLC ADR at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Compass Group PLC ADR that is +6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Compass Group PLC ADR grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies +6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Compass Group PLC ADR (+6.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.21 %: that much free cash flow Compass Group PLC ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Compass Group PLC ADR it is $24.18 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $32.83. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Compass Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, CMPGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.83, fair value $24.18, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMPGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.18). For Compass Group PLC ADR the two are $8.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Compass Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values Compass Group PLC ADR at about $55.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $32.83; our models calculate a fair value of $24.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMPGY?
Our models span a range for Compass Group PLC ADR: cautious scenario $18.14, base $24.18, optimistic $30.23 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $32.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMPGY?
Compass Group PLC ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 7.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CMPGY?
The PEG ratio of Compass Group PLC ADR is 1.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Compass Group PLC ADR (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 26.9%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMPGY from its 52-week high?
Compass Group PLC ADR trades at $32.83, about 6% below its 52-week high of $34.92 and 22% above the low of $26.90 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Compass Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Compass Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $32.83, calculated fair value $24.18 (−26%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMPGY calculated?
We run Compass Group PLC ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Compass Group PLC ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was $32.83. Our model-based fair value is $24.18, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Compass Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Compass Group PLC ADR grew +7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Compass Group PLC ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The market capitalisation of Compass Group PLC ADR is $55.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Compass Group PLC ADR is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Earnings per share at Compass Group PLC ADR are $1.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The dividend yield of Compass Group PLC ADR is 2.1% (payout 57.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The net margin of Compass Group PLC ADR is 4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Compass Group PLC ADR is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Compass Group PLC ADR is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
The operating margin of Compass Group PLC ADR is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Revenue at Compass Group PLC ADR is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Compass Group PLC (CMPGY)?
Earnings per share at Compass Group PLC ADR are growing +16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Compass Group PLC (CMPGY) carry?
The net debt of Compass Group PLC ADR is $6.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 20, 2026