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Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc $3.45, price $1.30, upside +165.4%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US18270D1063

Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc

CMTG · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $3.45 · Strongly undervalued (+165%)

!Quality 35/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.5 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -113.6% net margin (FY2025)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (3/8)

!Narrow moat 10/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $2.27 to bull $4.30 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 35/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range $1.30 – $20.71 · fair‑value band $2.27 – $4.30 · the $1.30 price screens below the $3.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. It focuses on originating senior and subordinate loans on transitional commercial real estate assets in the United States. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to federal and state income tax on that portion of its income that is distributed to shareholders if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income and complies with certain other requirements to quality as a REIT. Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.45, implying the stock looks roughly 62.3% undervalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.27 (bear) to $4.30 (bull), the price of $1.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc reported revenue of $430M in FY2025 versus $215M in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$489M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $376M · EPS (TTM) $−3.32 · Net margin −114% · Return on equity −27.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin 438% · Revenue (TTM) −$319M · Revenue growth (YoY) −63.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 165%, CMTG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.27 Fair Value $3.45 Bull $4.30

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

NCAV (Graham) $5.46 $7.32 $10.93 54

All 1 models by family

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $5.46 $7.32 $10.93 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7

Profitability 0

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 37

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 0

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 37

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 100

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 25

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 0

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 75

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+152.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.8%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+14.5%

’18

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’21

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’23

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’25

Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

74.1% (2020) → −113.6% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

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Compare Claros Mortgage Trust Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +165% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) −114% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −64% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.84× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.25× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 100

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 9

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25

HEALTH (low debt)58 · sector 0

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY	$21.04	$23.37	+11%
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC	$10.09	$25.23	+150%
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD	$15.10	$35.89	+138%
Rithm Capital Corp RITM	$9.64	$12.93	+34%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX	$12.10	$11.09	−8%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT	$13.14	$32.85	+150%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR	$14.99	$23.05	+54%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC	$12.70	$13.45	+6%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR	$9.41	$7.57	−20%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC	$6.12	$15.30	+150%

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Claros Mortgage Trust Inc · Fair Value
$3.45 +62%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Claros Mortgage Trust Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$3.45</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+62%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Claros Mortgage Trust Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTG

Frequently asked questions

Is Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.45 versus a price of $1.30, about +165% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of CMTG?

Our model-based fair value for Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is $3.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.30.

What is the quality score of CMTG?

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $4.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Claros Mortgage Trust Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $3.45, about +165% upside versus a price of $1.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $4.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the intrinsic value of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Claros Mortgage Trust Inc it is $3.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.30. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Claros Mortgage Trust Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, CMTG trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.30, fair value $3.45, a gap of about +165% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CMTG?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.45). For Claros Mortgage Trust Inc the two are $2.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Claros Mortgage Trust Inc worth?

The market values Claros Mortgage Trust Inc at about $376M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.30; our models calculate a fair value of $3.45 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMTG?

Our models span a range for Claros Mortgage Trust Inc: cautious scenario $2.27, base $3.45, optimistic $4.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Balance-sheet figures for Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −27.1%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CMTG from its 52-week high?

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc trades at $1.30, about 65% below its 52-week high of $3.70 and at the low of $1.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.45 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Claros Mortgage Trust Inc?

From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Claros Mortgage Trust Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.30, calculated fair value $3.45 (+165%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CMTG calculated?

We run Claros Mortgage Trust Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Claros Mortgage Trust Inc currently trades 165 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1.30. Our model-based fair value is $3.45, about +165% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Claros Mortgage Trust Inc right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.27 to $4.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

The market capitalisation of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is $376M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What are the earnings per share of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Earnings per share at Claros Mortgage Trust Inc are $−3.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

The net margin of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is −114% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is −27.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

The operating margin of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is 438% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How much revenue does Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) generate?

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc generates revenue of −$319M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.

How fast is revenue growing at Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Revenue at Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is growing −63.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG)?

Earnings per share at Claros Mortgage Trust Inc are growing −95.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) generate?

The free cash flow of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is −$33.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (CMTG) carry?

The net debt of Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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