Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc (CMTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $376M
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc
CMTG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −11.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 127% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.90 to $5.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.70 – $20.71 · fair‑value band $2.90 – $5.49 · the $1.94 price screens below the $4.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc (CMTG) currently trades at $1.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.40, implying the stock looks roughly 126.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Revenue declined 63.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -27.1%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.90 (bear case) to $5.49 (bull case); at $1.94, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 127%, CMTG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. It focuses on originating senior and subordinate loans on transitional commercial real estate assets in the United States. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust.
Full company description
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. It focuses on originating senior and subordinate loans on transitional commercial real estate assets in the United States. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to federal and state income tax on that portion of its income that is distributed to shareholders if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income and complies with certain other requirements to quality as a REIT. Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc reported revenue of $430M in FY2025 versus $215M in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$489M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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