Covestro (COVTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Covestro $4.35, price $32.71, upside -86.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.03 – $36.19 · fair‑value band $1.58 – $7.13 · the $32.71 price screens above the $4.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Covestro AG operates as a supplier of polymer materials and application solutions. The company operates in two segments, Performance Materials, and Solutions & Specialties.
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Covestro AG operates as a supplier of polymer materials and application solutions. The company operates in two segments, Performance Materials, and Solutions & Specialties. The Performance Materials segment develops, produces, and supplies high-performance materials, such as polyurethanes and polycarbonates, and base chemicals, which include diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate, long-chain polyols, and polycarbonate resins for use in furniture and wood processing, construction, automotive, and transportation industries, as well as roof structures, insulation for buildings and refrigerators, mattresses, car seats, and other applications. The Solutions & Specialties segment comprises a range of polymer products, including polycarbonates, precursors for coatings and adhesives, MDI specialties and polyols, thermoplastic polyurethanes, specialty films, and elastomers that are used in automotive and transportation, electrical, electronics and household appliances, construction, and healthcare industries, as well as composite resins for solar panel frames, precursors for coatings and adhesives, specialty films, laptop cases, floodlights, and electric vehicle batteries. It markets its products through trading houses and distributors. It operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, the United States, Canada, and the People's Republic of China. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany. As of December 10, 2025, Covestro AG operates as a subsidiary of XRG P.J.S.C.
Stock analysis
Covestro ADR (COVTY) currently trades at $32.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.35, 86.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $12.70 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $32.71 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.74, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.58 (bear) to $7.13 (bull), the price of $32.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Covestro ADR reported revenue of €12.4B in FY2025 versus €15.9B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€619M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.7B · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $−1.97 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −5.0% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin −7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −87%, COVTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.58Fair Value $4.35Bull $7.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2020) → −3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 693 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.13× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA34.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.31× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Covestro ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COVTY
Frequently asked questions
Is Covestro (COVTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.35 versus a price of $32.71, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COVTY?
Our model-based fair value for Covestro ADR is $4.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.71.
What is the quality score of COVTY?
Covestro ADR has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Covestro (COVTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $7.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Covestro ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.35, about −87% upside versus a price of $32.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $7.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Covestro (COVTY)?
Covestro ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Covestro ADR pay a dividend?
Covestro ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Covestro (COVTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Covestro ADR it is $4.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $32.71. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Covestro ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, COVTY trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.71, fair value $4.35, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COVTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.35). For Covestro ADR the two are $28.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Covestro ADR worth?
The market values Covestro ADR at about $14.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $32.71; our models calculate a fair value of $4.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COVTY?
Our models span a range for Covestro ADR: cautious scenario $1.58, base $4.35, optimistic $7.13 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $32.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of COVTY?
The PEG ratio of Covestro ADR is 0.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Covestro (COVTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Covestro ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COVTY from its 52-week high?
Covestro ADR trades at $32.71, about 10% below its 52-week high of $36.19 and at the low of $32.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Covestro ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Covestro ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $32.71, calculated fair value $4.35 (−87%), Quality Score 41/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COVTY calculated?
We run Covestro ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Covestro ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Covestro (COVTY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $32.71. Our model-based fair value is $4.35, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Covestro ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.58 to $7.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Covestro ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Covestro (COVTY)?
The market capitalisation of Covestro ADR is $14.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Covestro (COVTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Covestro ADR is 1.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Covestro (COVTY)?
Earnings per share at Covestro ADR are $−1.97. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Covestro (COVTY)?
The dividend yield of Covestro ADR is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Covestro (COVTY)?
The net margin of Covestro ADR is −5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Covestro (COVTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Covestro ADR is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Covestro (COVTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Covestro ADR is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Covestro (COVTY)?
The operating margin of Covestro ADR is −7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Covestro (COVTY)?
Revenue at Covestro ADR is growing −13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Covestro (COVTY)?
Earnings per share at Covestro ADR are growing −76.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Covestro (COVTY) generate?
The free cash flow of Covestro ADR is −€360M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Covestro (COVTY) carry?
The net debt of Covestro ADR is €2.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026