Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$2.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.48 – A$4.23 · fair‑value band A$1.65 – A$2.75 · the A$4.23 price screens above the A$2.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR) currently trades at A$4.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.20, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Charter Hall Retail REIT generated revenue of A$386M at a net margin of 90.4%. Revenue grew 37.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at A$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.65 (bear case) to A$2.75 (bull case); at A$4.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -48%, CQR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$4.09) versus DCF Models (A$1.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Charter Hall Retail REIT is the leading owner of property for convenience retailers. Charter Hall Retail REIT is managed by Charter Hall Group. Charter Hall is one of Australia's leading fully integrated property investment and funds management groups.
Full company description
Charter Hall Retail REIT is the leading owner of property for convenience retailers. Charter Hall Retail REIT is managed by Charter Hall Group. Charter Hall is one of Australia's leading fully integrated property investment and funds management groups. We use our expertise to access, deploy, manage and invest equity to create value and generate superior returns for our investor customers. We've curated a diverse portfolio of high-quality properties across our core sectors " Office, Industrial & Logistics, Retail and Social Infrastructure. With partnerships and financial discipline at the heart of our approach, we create and invest in places that support our customers, people and communities to grow. Charter Hall Retail REIT was established on July 21, 1995 and incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Charter Hall Retail REIT reported revenue of A$197M in FY2025 versus A$192M in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$214M in FY2025, compounding −7.4%/yr from FY2021.
CQR screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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