Criteo S.A (CRTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $876M
Criteo S.A
CRTO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $63.30 to $55.14 (−12.9%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −19.5% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($41.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.86 – $49.66 · fair‑value band $41.35 – $68.92 · the $18.38 price screens below the $55.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Criteo S.A (CRTO) currently trades at $18.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.14, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Criteo S.A generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue declined 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $192M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $41.35 (bear case) to $68.92 (bull case); at $18.38, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at 200%, CRTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($62.11) versus Asset-Based ($15.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides platform to connects the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners to drive measurable business outcomes in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates in two segments, Retail Media and Performance Media.
Full company description
Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides platform to connects the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners to drive measurable business outcomes in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates in two segments, Retail Media and Performance Media. The Retail Media segment connects brands to shoppers at the digital point of sale through personalized ads that appear on retailer websites and across the open internet. The Performance Media segment encompasses commerce activation, monetization, and services that enable advertisers to reach and convert consumers across channels. It also offers Commerce Max, a suite of retail media demand-side tools that allow brands, agencies, and retailers to plan and buy media across retailer and open internet inventory with closed-loop, product-level measurement, and return-on-ad-spend optimization; Commerce Growth, a solution for continuous customer acquisition and retention for performance marketers and agencies; and GO, an AI-driven solution that automates campaign creation and optimization. In addition, the company provides Commerce Yield, which offers monetization solutions that help retailers and marketplaces maximize the value of their digital assets through inventory and data management, packaging, and in-depth insights; Commerce Grid, a commerce-focused supply side platform for media owner data and inventory monetization; and Criteo Shopper Graph, which derives clients' proprietary commerce data, such as transaction activity on their digital properties. It serves retail, travel and marketplaces, and other commerce companies. Criteo S.A. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Criteo S.A reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Criteo Completes Luxembourg Redomiciliation, Approves Plan for US Domicile
- Criteo Completes Redomiciliation from France to Luxembourg; Board Approves Next Step Toward U.S. Domicile
- CRITEO TO ANNOUNCE SECOND QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS ON AUGUST 5, 2026
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $506.98 | $181.37 | -64% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $19.37 | $20.76 | +7% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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