CSG N.V (CSG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · NL · Market cap €13.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from €11.53 to €14.58 (+26.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +32.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (6 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
6‑month range €12.35 – €33.01 · fair‑value band €10.93 – €18.22 · the €19.26 price screens above the €14.58 fair value. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
CSG N.V (CSG) currently trades at €19.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.58, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CSG N.V generated revenue of €6.9B at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue grew 12.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.8%. Net debt stands at €3.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €10.93 (bear case) to €18.22 (bull case); at €19.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -24%, CSG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€31.30) versus Dividend Discount (€0.8600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CSG N.V. manufactures and sells defence products in the Czech Republic, Europe, the United States, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through CSG Defence Systems and CSG Ammo + segments.
Full company description
CSG N.V. manufactures and sells defence products in the Czech Republic, Europe, the United States, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through CSG Defence Systems and CSG Ammo + segments. The CSG Defence Systems segment focuses on the production, sale, service, and maintenance of military and defence equipment to customers, including governments and private companies. Its products include medium and large calibre ammunition (105-155mm and other artillery ammunition, as well as tank ammunition, rockets, mortar bombs and medium calibre ammunition); land systems include military-use vehicles, such as military, wheeled and tracked vehicles, heavy off-road trucks and weapon systems; Aero space and defence electronics, including military radars for land vehicles and air defence systems, surveillance radars, and systems for air traffic control; and advanced systems, focuses on turbojet engines for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles. The CSG Ammo + segment provides small calibre ammunicato products, including ammunition for pistols, revolvers, rifles and shotguns for civilian customers, law enforcement, and the military. The company has a strategic collaboration with FNSS Savunma Sistemleri A.S. for the development of advanced armored platforms. The company has strategic joint ventures with Hellenic Defence Systems S.A. in Greece to produce large-calibre ammunition and explosives supply security, and with partners in India to expand manufacturing capabilities and secure access to critical inputs for ammunition production. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Prague, the Czech Republic. CSG N.V. operates as a subsidiary of CSG FIN a.s.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CSG N.V reported revenue of €6.7B in FY2025 versus €14.4B in FY2021, a compound −17.3%/yr. Reported net income was €694M in FY2025, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2021.
CSG screens 24% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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