Citi Trends, Inc (CTRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $505M
Citi Trends, Inc
CTRN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 19 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $13.03 to $10.63 (−18.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +29.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.83 – $107.20 · fair‑value band $7.97 – $13.28 · the $72.69 price screens above the $10.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Citi Trends, Inc (CTRN) currently trades at $72.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.63, implying the stock looks roughly 85.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Citi Trends, Inc generated revenue of $849M at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at $157M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.97 (bear case) to $13.28 (bull case); at $72.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 157% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -85%, CTRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 19 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.75) versus Earnings-Based ($2.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends. The company offers apparel for juniors, missy, and plus size, including trend right sportswear, outerwear, sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for women; basics, fashion, and trends for boys up to size 20 and girls up to size 16, as well as sizes for newborns, infants, and …
Full company description
Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends. The company offers apparel for juniors, missy, and plus size, including trend right sportswear, outerwear, sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for women; basics, fashion, and trends for boys up to size 20 and girls up to size 16, as well as sizes for newborns, infants, and toddlers; children's uniforms, accessories, and sleepwear; and apparel for men and big men, such as trend right sportswear and outerwear. It also provides fashionable handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches for men and women; and underwear and socks for the entire family, as well as beauty and fragrance offerings for women and men. In addition, the company offers home goods for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; eclectic composition of wants and needs comprising books, food, tech products, team sports products, toys, health and beauty products, and seasonal items. Further, it provides casual and dress footwear in sizes for men, women, and children. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Citi Trends, Inc reported revenue of $820M in FY2026 versus $992M in FY2022, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2M in FY2026, compounding −46.2%/yr from FY2022.
CTRN screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Citi Trends, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Citi Trends (CTRN) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- Citi Trends Shares Gain After Strong Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Outlook (CTRN)
- Citi Trends, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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