Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Citi Trends Inc $10.63, price $50.56, upside -79.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.83 – $96.60 · fair‑value band $8.71 – $13.28 · the $50.56 price screens above the $10.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends.
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Citi Trends, Inc. operates as a value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends. The company offers apparel for juniors, missy, and plus size, including trend right sportswear, outerwear, sleepwear, lingerie, and scrubs for women; basics, fashion, and trends for boys up to size 20 and girls up to size 16, as well as sizes for newborns, infants, and toddlers; children's uniforms, accessories, and sleepwear; and apparel for men and big men, such as trend right sportswear and outerwear. It also provides fashionable handbags, luggage, hats, belts, sunglasses, jewelry, and watches for men and women; and underwear and socks for the entire family, as well as beauty and fragrance offerings for women and men. In addition, the company offers home goods for the bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and decorative accessories; eclectic composition of wants and needs comprising books, food, tech products, team sports products, toys, health and beauty products, and seasonal items. Further, it provides casual and dress footwear in sizes for men, women, and children. The company was formerly known as Allied Fashion, Inc. and changed its name to Citi Trends, Inc. in 2001. Citi Trends, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Savannah, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) currently trades at $50.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.63, implying the stock looks roughly 375.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.14 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $50.56 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.46, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.71 (bear) to $13.28 (bull), the price of $50.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Citi Trends Inc reported revenue of $820M in FY2026 versus $992M in FY2022, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2M in FY2026, compounding −46.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $505M · P/E ratio 35.4 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) $1.43 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −79%, CTRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.46 to $24.46). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $8.71Fair Value $10.63Bull $13.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9246 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−24.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → −1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF809.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.85× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)72· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)41· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.63 versus a price of $50.56, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTRN?
Our model-based fair value for Citi Trends Inc is $10.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.56.
What is the quality score of CTRN?
Citi Trends Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.71, optimistic scenario $13.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citi Trends Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.63, about −79% upside versus a price of $50.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.71, optimistic scenario $13.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Citi Trends Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $849M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citi Trends Inc would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTRN use?
Our models discount Citi Trends Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Citi Trends Inc that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Citi Trends Inc grew +0.9 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Citi Trends Inc (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 %: that much free cash flow Citi Trends Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citi Trends Inc it is $10.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $50.56. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citi Trends Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CTRN trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.56, fair value $10.63, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.63). For Citi Trends Inc the two are $39.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citi Trends Inc worth?
The market values Citi Trends Inc at about $505M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $50.56; our models calculate a fair value of $10.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTRN?
Our models span a range for Citi Trends Inc: cautious scenario $8.71, base $10.63, optimistic $13.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $50.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTRN?
Citi Trends Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 4.3, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CTRN?
The PEG ratio of Citi Trends Inc is 2.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Citi Trends Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTRN from its 52-week high?
Citi Trends Inc trades at $50.56, about 34% below its 52-week high of $76.18 and 64% above the low of $30.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citi Trends Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citi Trends Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $50.56, calculated fair value $10.63 (−79%), Quality Score 66/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTRN calculated?
We run Citi Trends Inc through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Citi Trends Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $50.56. Our model-based fair value is $10.63, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citi Trends Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Citi Trends Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The market capitalisation of Citi Trends Inc is $505M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citi Trends Inc is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Earnings per share at Citi Trends Inc are $1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The net margin of Citi Trends Inc is 0.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citi Trends Inc is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Citi Trends Inc is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
The operating margin of Citi Trends Inc is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Revenue at Citi Trends Inc is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citi Trends Inc (CTRN)?
Earnings per share at Citi Trends Inc are growing +739% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) carry?
The net debt of Citi Trends Inc is $157M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026