CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CTT Correios de Portugal SA €9.37, price €6.30, upside +48.8%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.29 – €7.87 · fair‑value band €6.55 – €11.79 · the €6.30 price screens below the €9.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT.
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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT. It is involved in consulting, outsource process management, and contact center operations; courier services, urgent mail transport, express mail, and delivery of goods; distribution of advertising mail; payment services; and provision of various banking products and services. The company was founded in 1520 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) currently trades at €6.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.37, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €11.60 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the €6.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.30, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €6.55 (bear) to €11.79 (bull), the price of €6.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CTT Correios de Portugal SA reported revenue of €1.2B in FY2025 versus €814M in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was €50.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €836M · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) €0.3800 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 49%, CTT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €6.55Fair Value €9.37Bull €11.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2790 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2007 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.4% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
Compare CTT Correios de Portugal SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
P/B3.70× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CTT Correios de Portugal SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTT
Frequently asked questions
Is CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.37 versus a price of €6.30, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTT?
Our model-based fair value for CTT Correios de Portugal SA is €9.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.30.
What is the quality score of CTT?
CTT Correios de Portugal SA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.55, optimistic scenario €11.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CTT Correios de Portugal SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €9.37, about +49% upside versus a price of €6.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.55, optimistic scenario €11.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
CTT Correios de Portugal SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does CTT Correios de Portugal SA pay a dividend?
CTT Correios de Portugal SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CTT Correios de Portugal SA would have to grow free cash flow by -3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTT use?
Our models discount CTT Correios de Portugal SA at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CTT Correios de Portugal SA that is -3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CTT Correios de Portugal SA grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies -3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CTT Correios de Portugal SA (-3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.79 %: that much free cash flow CTT Correios de Portugal SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CTT Correios de Portugal SA it is €9.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €6.30. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CTT Correios de Portugal SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CTT trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.30, fair value €9.37, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.37). For CTT Correios de Portugal SA the two are €3.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CTT Correios de Portugal SA worth?
The market values CTT Correios de Portugal SA at about €836M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €6.30; our models calculate a fair value of €9.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTT?
Our models span a range for CTT Correios de Portugal SA: cautious scenario €6.55, base €9.37, optimistic €11.79 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €6.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTT?
CTT Correios de Portugal SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €9.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Balance-sheet figures for CTT Correios de Portugal SA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTT from its 52-week high?
CTT Correios de Portugal SA trades at €6.30, about 14% below its 52-week high of €7.36 and 13% above the low of €5.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CTT Correios de Portugal SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CTT Correios de Portugal SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €6.30, calculated fair value €9.37 (+49%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTT calculated?
We run CTT Correios de Portugal SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €9.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CTT Correios de Portugal SA currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €6.30. Our model-based fair value is €9.37, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CTT Correios de Portugal SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of CTT Correios de Portugal SA
How large is the market capitalisation of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The market capitalisation of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is €836M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Earnings per share at CTT Correios de Portugal SA are €0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The dividend yield of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 3.1% (payout 50.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The net margin of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
The operating margin of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Revenue at CTT Correios de Portugal SA is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT)?
Earnings per share at CTT Correios de Portugal SA are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CTT Correios de Portugal SA (CTT) carry?
The net debt of CTT Correios de Portugal SA is €35.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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