Covestro AG (CVVTF) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $14.7B

Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($13.83 to $42.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $25.18 – $95.05 · fair‑value band $13.83 – $42.68 · the $65.10 price screens above the $28.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Covestro AG (CVVTF) currently trades at $65.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.25, implying the stock looks roughly 56.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Covestro AG generated revenue of $12.9B at a net margin of -5.0%. Revenue declined 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.4%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.83 (bear case) to $42.68 (bull case); at $65.10, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -57%, CVVTF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($11.48) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0473). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Covestro AG operates as a supplier of polymer materials and application solutions. The company operates in two segments, Performance Materials, and Solutions & Specialties.

Full company description

Covestro AG operates as a supplier of polymer materials and application solutions. The company operates in two segments, Performance Materials, and Solutions & Specialties. The Performance Materials segment develops, produces, and supplies high-performance materials, such as polyurethanes and polycarbonates, and base chemicals, which include diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate, long-chain polyols, and polycarbonate resins for use in furniture and wood processing, construction, automotive, and transportation industries, as well as roof structures, insulation for buildings and refrigerators, mattresses, car seats, and other applications. The Solutions & Specialties segment comprises a range of polymer products, including polycarbonates, precursors for coatings and adhesives, MDI specialties and polyols, thermoplastic polyurethanes, specialty films, and elastomers that are used in automotive and transportation, electrical, electronics and household appliances, construction, and healthcare industries, as well as composite resins for solar panel frames, precursors for coatings and adhesives, specialty films, laptop cases, floodlights, and electric vehicle batteries. It markets its products through trading houses and distributors. It operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, the United States, Canada, and the People's Republic of China. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany. As of December 10, 2025, Covestro AG operates as a subsidiary of XRG P.J.S.C.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Covestro AG reported revenue of $12.9B in FY2025 versus $15.9B in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$644M in FY2025.

CVVTF screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Covestro (DB:1COV) Returned To Profit, Is The Valuation Upside Already Priced In? Yahoo Finance · Aug 1, 2026
• Cast Elastomers Company Evaluation Report 2025: BASF, Dow and Covestro Lead with Advanced Polyurethane Systems, Sustainable Materials and Hi Yahoo Finance · Mar 5, 2026

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 729 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.