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Cy4gate Spa (CY4) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Cy4gate Spa €14.12, price €10.50, upside +34.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · IT · ISIN IT0005412504

CS Some data Sep 23, 2026

Cy4gate Spa

CY4 · MI

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value €14.12 · Undervalued (+34%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +49.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€13.46 €3.34 Fair Value €14.12 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.34 – €13.46 · fair‑value band €9.39 – €21.52 · the €10.50 price screens below the €14.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Cy4gate S.p.A. designs, develops, and produces technologies, products, systems, and services for cyber intelligence and cyber security needs for the companies, institutions, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces in Italy and internationally.

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Cy4gate S.p.A. designs, develops, and produces technologies, products, systems, and services for cyber intelligence and cyber security needs for the companies, institutions, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces in Italy and internationally. The company offers CY4GARD, a forensic analysis and incident response solution; PronoCyber, a digital emergency response insurance platform against cyber-attacks and data breaches; QUIPO Enterprise, a decision intelligence software platform for improving the decision-making process; and VIP'S DIGITAL BODYGUARD to protect against online reputation attacks, privacy violations, cyber blackmailing, data leaks, covert unlawful monitoring, etc. It also operates CY4GATE Academy that provides recruiting, educational, and training programs to address cyber intelligence, cyber security engineering, cybersecurity incident response and recovery, and cybersecurity assessment needs. In addition, the company offers DSINT, an advanced intelligence analytics platform to collect, analyze, and transform heterogeneous data flows into strategic intelligence outcome; and C4I solutions for decision making in a range of military and law enforcement scenarios. Further, the company designs and develops network intelligence products to support law enforcement agencies and security agencies in conducting lawful interception operations; homeland security mobile assets; TACTICAL RTA to support the cyber team focusing on real-time threats; cyber electromagnetic attack systems and simulation models; and DIGILAB to perform digital activities for platform and system analysis, vulnerability management, and attack pattern engineering. Cy4gate S.p.A. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy. Cy4gate S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Elettronica S.p.A.

Stock analysis

Cy4gate Spa (CY4) currently trades at €10.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.12, implying the stock looks roughly 25.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €16.96 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the €10.50 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.59, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €9.39 (bear) to €21.52 (bull), the price of €10.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Cy4gate Spa reported revenue of €99.1M in FY2025 versus €16.6M in FY2021, a compound +56.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€10.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €243M · P/S ratio 1.85 · EPS (TTM) €−0.1800 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −10.1% · Return on equity −4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 34%, CY4 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €9.39 Fair Value €14.12 Bull €21.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €11.37 €15.75 €28.56 76
Growth DCF €10.67 €16.96 €26.78 75
Owner Earnings €4.82 €9.05 €16.43 71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €11.37 €15.75 €28.56 76
Owner Earnings €4.82 €9.05 €16.43 71
5Y Revenue Exit €9.25 €14.94 €26.78 68
5Y EBITDA Exit €10.02 €16.50 €29.16 70
10Y Revenue Exit €9.77 €18.91 €24.18 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €10.49 €20.33 €36.75 63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.5200 €0.8600 €1.12 66
DDM Multi-Stage €0.5200 €0.8200 €0.9300 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €9.27 €12.21 €15.15 67
EV/Revenue €7.56 €10.62 €13.67 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.93 €2.59 €3.86 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €10.67 €16.96 €26.78 75
Rev-Margin DCF €10.12 €17.02 €31.50 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
39.3% (2020) → −4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +34% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 142% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.24× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 15.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 22.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)79 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)15 · sector 33

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $149.20 $117.84 −21%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $184.99 $43.02 −77%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $262.49 $35.15 −87%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $178.74 $164.92 −8%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $413.06 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.68 $101.29 +36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.90 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Cy4gate Spa · Fair Value
€14.12 +26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cy4gate Spa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CY4

Frequently asked questions

Is Cy4gate Spa (CY4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.12 versus a price of €10.50, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CY4?
Our model-based fair value for Cy4gate Spa is €14.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.50.
What is the quality score of CY4?
Cy4gate Spa has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cy4gate Spa stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.12, about +34% upside versus a price of €10.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Cy4gate Spa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €124M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cy4gate Spa pay a dividend?
Cy4gate Spa currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cy4gate Spa would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +49.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CY4 use?
Our models discount Cy4gate Spa at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cy4gate Spa that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cy4gate Spa (CY4) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cy4gate Spa grew +49.3 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cy4gate Spa (CY4) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cy4gate Spa (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.45 %: that much free cash flow Cy4gate Spa produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cy4gate Spa it is €14.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €10.50. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cy4gate Spa stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CY4 trades below its calculated fair value: price €10.50, fair value €14.12, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CY4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.12). For Cy4gate Spa the two are €3.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cy4gate Spa worth?
The market values Cy4gate Spa at about €243M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €10.50; our models calculate a fair value of €14.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CY4?
Our models span a range for Cy4gate Spa: cautious scenario €9.39, base €14.12, optimistic €21.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €10.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cy4gate Spa (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −4.1%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CY4 from its 52-week high?
Cy4gate Spa trades at €10.50, about 1% below its 52-week high of €10.56 and 104% above the low of €5.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cy4gate Spa?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cy4gate Spa stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €10.50, calculated fair value €14.12 (+34%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CY4 calculated?
We run Cy4gate Spa through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Cy4gate Spa currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €10.50. Our model-based fair value is €14.12, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cy4gate Spa right now?
Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€9.39 to €21.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cy4gate Spa

How large is the market capitalisation of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The market capitalisation of Cy4gate Spa is €243M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cy4gate Spa is 1.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Earnings per share at Cy4gate Spa are €−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The dividend yield of Cy4gate Spa is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The net margin of Cy4gate Spa is −10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cy4gate Spa is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cy4gate Spa is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
The operating margin of Cy4gate Spa is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Revenue at Cy4gate Spa is growing +142% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cy4gate Spa (CY4)?
Earnings per share at Cy4gate Spa are growing −16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cy4gate Spa (CY4) carry?
The net debt of Cy4gate Spa is €10.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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