Cy4gate S.p.A (CY4) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · IT · Market cap €231M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €9.72 to €8.05 (−17.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from €5.92 (bear) to €10.17 (bull), base €8.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 54/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.34 – €13.46 · fair‑value band €5.92 – €10.17 · the €10.00 price screens above the €8.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Cy4gate S.p.A (CY4) currently trades at €10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.05, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cy4gate S.p.A generated revenue of €124M at a net margin of -5.1%. Revenue grew 146.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.1%. Net debt stands at €10.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.92 (bear case) to €10.17 (bull case); at €10.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -20%, CY4 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€14.47) versus Dividend Discount (€0.8200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cy4gate S.p.A. designs, develops, and produces technologies, products, systems, and services for cyber intelligence and cyber security needs for the companies, institutions, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces in Italy and internationally.
Full company description
Cy4gate S.p.A. designs, develops, and produces technologies, products, systems, and services for cyber intelligence and cyber security needs for the companies, institutions, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces in Italy and internationally. The company offers CY4GARD, a forensic analysis and incident response solution; PronoCyber, a digital emergency response insurance platform against cyber-attacks and data breaches; QUIPO Enterprise, a decision intelligence software platform for improving the decision-making process; and VIP'S DIGITAL BODYGUARD to protect against online reputation attacks, privacy violations, cyber blackmailing, data leaks, covert unlawful monitoring, etc. It also operates CY4GATE Academy that provides recruiting, educational, and training programs to address cyber intelligence, cyber security engineering, cybersecurity incident response and recovery, and cybersecurity assessment needs. In addition, the company offers DSINT, an advanced intelligence analytics platform to collect, analyze, and transform heterogeneous data flows into strategic intelligence outcome; and C4I solutions for decision making in a range of military and law enforcement scenarios. Further, the company designs and develops network intelligence products to support law enforcement agencies and security agencies in conducting lawful interception operations; homeland security mobile assets; TACTICAL RTA to support the cyber team focusing on real-time threats; cyber electromagnetic attack systems and simulation models; and DIGILAB to perform digital activities for platform and system analysis, vulnerability management, and attack pattern engineering. Cy4gate S.p.A. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy. Cy4gate S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Elettronica S.p.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cy4gate S.p.A reported revenue of €99.1M in FY2025 versus €16.6M in FY2021, a compound +56.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€10.0M in FY2025.
CY4 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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