CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 22, 2026: fair value of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE $51.66, price $46.96, upside +10.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.01 – $53.46 · fair‑value band $36.17 – $67.16 · the $46.96 price screens below the $51.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Colt CZ Group SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of firearms, ammunition products, and tactical accessories in the Czech Republic, Canada, the United States, rest of Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally.
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Colt CZ Group SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of firearms, ammunition products, and tactical accessories in the Czech Republic, Canada, the United States, rest of Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. Its firearms include pistols, revolvers, rimfire rifles, centerfire rifles, select fire rifles, sub guns, grenade launchers, and sniper rifles; and components for firearms. The company offers tactical and ballistic equipment, such as ballistic vests, helmets and other protection products, combat uniforms, and backpacks, as well as firearms accessories consisting of handgun holsters, and magazine pouches; and optical mounts, accessories and upgrade kits for firearms. It markets and sells its products under the Colt, CZ (Ceská zbrojovka), CZ-USA, Colt Canada, Dan Wesson, Sellier & Bellot, Spuhr i Dalby, swissAA, Colt Optics, and 4M Systems brands. The company was formerly known as CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE and changed its name to Colt CZ Group SE in April 2022. Colt CZ Group SE was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Prague, the Czech Republic. The company operates as a subsidiary of Ceska Zbrojovka Partners SE.
Stock analysis
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) currently trades at $46.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.66, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $78.47 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $46.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.42, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $36.17 (bear) to $67.16 (bull), the price of $46.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE reported revenue of 23.4B CZK in FY2025 versus 10.7B CZK in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0B CZK in FY2025, compounding +28.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 2.44 · EPS (TTM) $1.68 · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Revenue (TTM) 24.0B CZK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 10%, CZGZF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $36.17Fair Value $51.66Bull $67.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.8% vs −4.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CZK, Czechia: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.4% a year for the price and +9.6% for the forecasts.
Compare CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CZGZF
Frequently asked questions
Is CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.66 versus the last price from Jun 22, 2026 of $46.96, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CZGZF?
Our model-based fair value for CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is $51.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 22, 2026): $46.96.
What is the quality score of CZGZF?
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $51.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.17, optimistic scenario $67.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $51.66, about +10% upside versus the last price from Jun 22, 2026 of $46.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $36.17, optimistic scenario $67.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.0B CZK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE would have to grow free cash flow by -4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CZGZF use?
Our models discount CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE that is -4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE grew +28.0 % a year. The price currently implies -4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (-4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.53 %: that much free cash flow CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE it is $51.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $46.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CZGZF trades below its calculated fair value: price $46.96, fair value $51.66, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CZGZF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($46.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($51.66). For CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE the two are $4.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE worth?
The market values CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $46.96; our models calculate a fair value of $51.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CZGZF?
Our models span a range for CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE: cautious scenario $36.17, base $51.66, optimistic $67.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $46.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CZGZF?
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $51.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CZGZF from its 52-week high?
CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE trades at $46.96, about 12% below its 52-week high of $53.46 and 43% above the low of $32.90 (as of Jun 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $51.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $46.96, calculated fair value $51.66 (+10%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CZGZF calculated?
We run CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $51.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 22, 2026 and stands at $46.96. Our model-based fair value is $51.66, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE right now?
A fairly wide model range ($36.17 to $67.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE
How large is the market capitalisation of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The market capitalisation of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is 2.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Earnings per share at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE are $1.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The net margin of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is 8.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Revenue at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF)?
Earnings per share at CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE are growing −16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE (CZGZF) carry?
The net debt of CZG - Ceská zbrojovka Group SE is 8.5B CZK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026