Deutsche Post AG (DHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Deutsche Post AG stock €53.18, price €58.02, that is 8.3% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.98 – €60.38 · fair‑value band €39.88 – €66.47 · the €58.02 price screens above the €53.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany.
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The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions.
The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border services.
The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods; and additional services, such as registered mail, insured items, redirection, and storage, as well as export services. Deutsche Post AG was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
Stock analysis
Deutsche Post AG (DHL) currently trades at €58.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.18, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €65.55 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the €58.02 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €18.78, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €39.88 (bear) to €66.47 (bull), the price of €58.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Deutsche Post AG reported revenue of €82.9B in FY2025 versus €81.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €65.1B Large · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) €3.26 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −8%, DHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€39.88Fair Value €53.18Bull€66.47
Price €58.02 · Downside -8.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 6.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Global scale supports organizational capital as the main strength, while other factors show only moderate or limited signals of durable advantage.
Main risk: Amazon's new supply chain services could take B2B customers from DHL or force lower prices and margins in express and contract logistics.
Bull case: DHL could leverage its global scale, specialized compliance expertise and customized enterprise solutions to retain high-value customers even as Amazon expands its logistics offerings.
Bear case: If Amazon captures meaningful share in B2B segments, DHL could face sustained volume losses and margin pressure in express and supply-chain services.
DHL's Express division keeps showing strong earnings momentum from better yields and operating leverage, which led to an upgraded full-year 2026 guidance and higher free cash flow expectations on the back of a robust peak season outlook. At the same time capex is rising to pursue additional growth. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet does the momentum deliver sustained returns or does the extra spending mainly fund volume that fails to lift margins durably?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Post AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DHL
Frequently asked questions
Is Deutsche Post AG (DHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €53.18 versus a price of €58.02, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DHL?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Post AG is €53.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €58.02.
What is the quality score of DHL?
Deutsche Post AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €53.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €39.88, optimistic scenario €66.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutsche Post AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €53.18, about 8% lower versus a price of €58.02 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €39.88, optimistic scenario €66.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Deutsche Post AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €85.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Deutsche Post AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Post AG currently shows a dividend yield of 3.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deutsche Post AG would have to grow free cash flow by +0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DHL use?
Our models discount Deutsche Post AG at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deutsche Post AG that is +0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deutsche Post AG (DHL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deutsche Post AG grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deutsche Post AG (DHL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deutsche Post AG (+0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.61 %: that much free cash flow Deutsche Post AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Post AG it is €53.18 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €58.02. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deutsche Post AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DHL trades above its calculated fair value: price €58.02, fair value €53.18, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€58.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€53.18). For Deutsche Post AG the two are €4.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutsche Post AG worth?
The market values Deutsche Post AG at about €65.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €58.02; our models calculate a fair value of €53.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DHL?
Our models span a range for Deutsche Post AG: cautious scenario €39.88, base €53.18, optimistic €66.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €58.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DHL?
Deutsche Post AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €53.18 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 2.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of DHL?
The PEG ratio of Deutsche Post AG is 2.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deutsche Post AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DHL from its 52-week high?
Deutsche Post AG trades at €58.02, about 4% below its 52-week high of €60.38 and 44% above the low of €40.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €53.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Post AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutsche Post AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €58.02, calculated fair value €53.18 (−8%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DHL calculated?
We run Deutsche Post AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €53.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Deutsche Post AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €58.02. Our model-based fair value is €53.18, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deutsche Post AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Deutsche Post AG (DHL) come from?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Post AG grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Deutsche Post AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The market capitalisation of Deutsche Post AG is €65.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deutsche Post AG is 0.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Post AG are €3.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The dividend yield of Deutsche Post AG is 3.3% (payout 58.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The net margin of Deutsche Post AG is 4.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deutsche Post AG is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutsche Post AG is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
The operating margin of Deutsche Post AG is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Revenue at Deutsche Post AG is growing +12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deutsche Post AG (DHL)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Post AG are growing +28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Deutsche Post AG (DHL) carry?
The net debt of Deutsche Post AG is €22.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026