Duluth Holdings (DLTH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $161M
Duluth Holdings
DLTH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $2.44 to $1.95 (−20.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.5100 to $3.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.67 – $20.65 · fair‑value band $0.5100 – $3.38 · the $4.18 price screens above the $1.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Duluth Holdings (DLTH) currently trades at $4.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.95, implying the stock looks roughly 53.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Duluth Holdings generated revenue of $561M at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.9%. Net debt stands at $131M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.5100 (bear case) to $3.38 (bull case); at $4.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -53%, DLTH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($5.53) versus Asset-Based ($3.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Duluth Holdings Inc. sells casual wear, workwear, outdoor apparel, and accessories for men and women in the United States. It offers shirts, pants, shorts, underwear, outerwear, footwear, accessories, and hard goods.
Full company description
Duluth Holdings Inc. sells casual wear, workwear, outdoor apparel, and accessories for men and women in the United States. It offers shirts, pants, shorts, underwear, outerwear, footwear, accessories, and hard goods. The company provides its products under the Duluth Trading, AKHG, Alaskan Hardgear, Armachillo, Ballroom, Buck Naked, Bullpen, Cab Commander, Crouch Gusset, Dang Soft, Dry on the Fly, Duluth Trading Co, Duluthflex, Fire Hose, Flexpedition, Longtail T, NoGA, No Polo Shirt, No Yank, Spit & Polish, and Wild Boar names. It markets its products through its stores, website, direct mail, and customer contact centers. The company was formerly known as GEMPLER'S, Inc. Duluth Holdings Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mount Horeb, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Duluth Holdings reported revenue of $565M in FY2026 versus $699M in FY2022, a compound −5.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$16.4M in FY2026.
DLTH screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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